STORM2K

The GFS is really starting to get interesting, especially on the latest 18z run. I haven't got to test my anemometer yet, but this looks to be a good time.

Looks like the threat for tornadoes will be there, with a strong LLJ and nice upper level dynamics. Only thing the GFS lacks is thermodynamics, which I think it is underestimating. Here's a map of 500mb for 144 hours.



It looks to me that the severe weather threat is increasing, local mets around here agree.

I think the SE is overdue for some rough weather! Should be interesting to see what happens.

thanks for the heads up bk. let us know

Stay safe!!!!

Colin wrote:Stay safe!!!!

Of course with the typical GFS runs are jumping all over the place, and now it looks a little different. It now is in agreement with the Canadain, which takes a strong low across Michigan, with a trailing cold front, and a nice negative tilt through here. Still a good ways away and a lot of things could change, but this may be the 1st threat we've had this season.

and the excitement begins. hope it happens, been boring around here in alabama.

New ECMWF is coming out, out to day 5 (tuesday) right now, looks severe. Looks like a nice neg tilt with a LP center going across Illinios/Indiana.

ECMWF Day 5 SLP

ECMWF 500 Heights Day 5

I KNEW there was a reason not to pitch out
my twister avatar for the holidays, just yet!

Thanks, bk!

LOL Annette!

If you lived where I live you wouldn't have had reason for it in the first place!

LOL, gotta be a FEW more severe systems before
the icicles are hanging off the roof!