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EC honks "Encore" next week
Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 11:13 pm
by Scott_inVA
Thursday's EC keeps the idea going of a substantial rain event along eastern GOM states and SE CONUS early next week. Low comes up west of the Apps and develops near Lakes pumping warm moist air east of track. SVR in warm sector east of cold front? Very possible to get convection going if this isn't a huge overrunning event. Looking at many ZFP temps tonight, I think they are under done for mid week.
Scott
Posted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 8:50 am
by JCT777
Some interesting possibilities. Let's see how it pans out.
Posted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:56 am
by Stormsfury
The 00z GFS (time sensitive maps here) at Day 5 - That's a screaming setup for potential severe Wx ... strong UL divergence as the trough goes NEG TILT from Ohio southward into the Carolinas ...
MSLP
500mb Heights
300mb Heights
Posted: Fri Nov 14, 2003 11:20 am
by Scott_inVA
Yep.
This is precisely what worries me; the GFS is honking at 120 hours. I'm still unsold on the sharp negative tilt.
The thing to watch is does the EC hold the general idea over the next 2 days and does the GFS start flipping on every run (not unusual with this type of trof/Ridging).
Mid-Atlantic did go through similar event last November and we'll know by Sunday night.
Scott