STORM2K

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
730 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK AS RAIN AREA ACROSS NORTHERN CWA CONTINUES
TO DWINDLE AND DISSIPATE. MAIN CONCERN LOOKING AHEAD IS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKS TO BE
UNFOLDING. HISTORICALLY...NOVEMBER IS A VERY BAD MONTH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND DEATHS IN OUR CWA. THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER IS ALSO OUR
SECONDARY PEAK IN TORNADOES ONLY RIVALED BY SPRINGTIME STORMS.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 900 PM DETAILING
THE UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

Looks like we'll be rockin and rollin tomorrow night! I welcome the storms but I hope we don't have any Tornadoes around.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
855 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PLUS
STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA...DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE PROBABLE WITHIN SOME OF THESE STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY.
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINS CAUSING SOME FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS BY TYING
DOWN OUTSIDE PROPERTY VALUABLES OR MOVING THEM INDOORS SO THAT THEY
WILL NOT BE BLOWN OVER AND DESTROYED. POWER OUTAGES MAY ALSO OCCUR IF
POWERLINES ARE DOWNED DUE TO TREES FALLING ON THEM. FLASHLIGHTS AND
FRESH BATTERIES SHOULD BE GATHERED NOW IN CASE OF AN ELECTRICAL
OUTAGE.

HIGH WINDS CAN ALSO DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES IF THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY
ANCHORED. MAKE EARLY PREPARATIONS NOW TO MOVE INTO STRONGER
DWELLINGS SHOULD IT BE REQUIRED. MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTH-TO-NORTH CROSS
WINDS MONDAY EVENING THAT COULD CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OR FLIP
OVER.

$$

Sounds like the NWS is taking this event pretty serious. TX/LA S2K members keep your heads up!

They sure are PTracker. Well, my weather alert went off for the Flood Watch so I came to check things out. Here's the latest discussion from the Houston NWS--pretty interesting.
Ok, back to bed...


SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

SCT CONVECTION IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT W AND SW OF SE TX TONIGHT
WHERE THE LLJ IS INCREASING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
SE TX THIS MORNING...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MID-DAY.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE FLOOD AND SVR TSTM THREAT. WHAT TO SAY
THAT HAS NOT ALREADY BEEN SAID? IN A NUTSHELL...PARAMETERS ARE ALL
IN PLACE FOR A FLASH FLOOD AND SVR TSTM THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS MORNING AND COUPLED WITH A LITTLE
HEATING...WILL PROVIDE FOR AN EXPLOSIVE ENVIRONMENT OVR SE TX. WITH
LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES IN THE 200-300 RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND
DURING THE AFT HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT OUT AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL WINDS REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS TONIGHT. TWO ITEMS THAT HAVE CAUGHT
MY ATTENTION WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT ARE THE MODEL FORECASTS OF
NEAR 2 INCH PW OVER SE TX THIS AFT/EVE (RARE FOR NOV) AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVR SE TX (140 KTS) TONIGHT.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR TRAINING PRECIP IN AN
EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. STILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM
LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION WHICH COULD AID IN FOCUSING PRECIP LATER
TODAY. THEREFORE...FLOOD WATCH IS A GIVEN AND WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 AM CST MON 17 NOV 2003

AREA STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

PWS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF UPPER TROF MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST U.S. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL TX-SW TX WILL
INCREASE AND DEVELOP OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA THRU TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SE TX RECEIVED UP TO 6-8 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SW AND SC LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH OVER THIS AREA FOR NOW
AS MOST OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN QUITE DRY OVER THE LAST MONTH. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ON SUNDAY.

WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SE TX AND THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE NIGHT OVER THE LA ZONES.

SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO MOVE THRU SE TX BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS SW AND SC LA TUESDAY MORNING EXITING OUR EASTERN ZONES BY MID-
MORNING ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SQUALL LINE WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON TAP SPREADING WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.


Ok, now I'm REALLY going back to bed.

Hou/Gal area radar



Tulsa, OK radar



Dallas/Ft Worth radar



W Louisiana and E TX Radar



Topeka, KS radar

added Topeka radar due to severe storms in the area

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND OTHER
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS COMING WEEKEND.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Some serious wording in the new discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
305 PM CST MON 17 NOV 2003

...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE THRU TUE MORNING...

.OVERVIEW...
ALONG THE GULF COAST WE USUALLY SEE A SECONDARY SPIKE IN SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND THIS
SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TRUE WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT.

A VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 125-145KT OVER THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IMPRESSIVE LIFT ALSO NOTED AT 7H.
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HELICITY VALUES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER 250 M2/S2. EVEN-THOUGH CAPE
VALUES WILL BE LOW WITH VALUES PROGGED TO BE UNDER 1000 J/KG...
STRONG SHEAR AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ON TOP OF THAT...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. MEAN WINDS
BETWEEN 85H-5H ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND TUE MORNING. PWAT VALUES ON THE 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING ARE
ALREADY 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS AN ANOMALY OF 200 PERCENT OF NORM. PWAT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE
OVER 225 PERCENT OF NORM. RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH FLOW BECOMING
PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF CELLS. 2 TO 4
INCHES AREA WIDE IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING 6+
INCHES WHERE TRAINING MAY OCCUR. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE THAT HAS BROUGHT TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN THE KHGX FA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME
WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

ANOTHER SQUALL LINE IS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE
WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS.

.EXTENDED...
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKLY LATER ON TUESDAY WITH NICE FALL WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.


After seeing all the problems in Houston, I'll probably be up most of the night on the look out.

I was just looking for this thread to post the same thing PT....the rain has started here but it's light right now. Sure looks like we could be in for a rough night!! As long as I have electricity, I'll keep posting on and off.

Keep us updated SG, stay safe too.

We are monitoring the storms over here in the FL PH too. Local Mets are shouting SEVERE T'STORMS on every broadcast.

Looks like some nasty ones near Kelly. Stay safe SG! :o

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.khgx.shtml

Check out the nasty hook echo to the west of Beaumont moving north, most likely a tornado in that cell.

Yeah, those storms near Beaumont look very intense ... hope Kelly is watching this!

PTrackerLA wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.khgx.shtml

Check out the nasty hook echo to the west of Beaumont moving north, most likely a tornado in that cell.

Was just looking at that........Suprised not to see a warning out on that cell..............If you look slightly to the sw looks like a smaller hook as well coming out of houston............

Thanks Josh...I'm keeping a close eye on things. It's storming here but nothing severe yet....and hopefully never.

Btw...I'm located kinda just nnw of the Beaumont + they have on the NWS radar.

np tracking wx gives me something to do while I'm off work

What we don't need and what I see on radar is a squall line coming in from the west. It is still raining here, even though it has let up some. Kelly it looks like most of this is passing NW of you but the squall lilne will not. Keep dry and be safe.

I agree. We're all (SE TXans) going to get a dose of that long squall line out west.

Still nothing here yet.

All you folks west of us here in AL, esp. in the Houston area: stay safe!! Reading your posts about today's (and tonight's) violent weather has me practically "shaking in my boots' here! We're just a little ways downstream of all this. And here's our forecast discussion from this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TAKING SHAPE FOR TOMORROW...

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STRONG CONVECTION BEING NOTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS TEXAS. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. WINDS FIELDS ON THE LATEST GFS/ETA PACKAGES LOOK A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE TODAY. WE EXPECT INCREASING 1-3KM HELICITY BY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHERN ALABAMA. INCREASED UPPER JET DYNAMICS BY NOON...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE SPC MODERATE RISK OUTLOOKED FOR OUR AREA TOMORROW.

WHILE THIS ADMITTEDLY IS NOT A CLASSIC/TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHAT WE DO SEE WARRANTS ATTENTION. MEDIA...STORM SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW.

RIGHT NOW...SCENARIO THAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY WOULD PLACE A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST MS FROM THE WEST BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

WHILE MODELS DONT EMPHASIZE THE MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT AND DONT REALLY HIT THE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY HARD...THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...RESULTANT SHEAR...AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE RESULTING IN SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEEPER INSTABILITY
AXIS.

ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY POSTED TO THE WIRE .

05/GARMON

.MOB ...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

I plan to keep a very watchful eye to the sky tomorrow. Y'all take care... stay dry (if possible)... God bless!