STORM2K

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE SUWANEE VALLEY
OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT...

A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING OVER THE SUWANEE VALLEY AREA. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA YOU SHOULD
STAY TUNED TO TV...RADIO...OR NOAA NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...SPOTTER NETWORKS...
AND OTHER INTERESTS ARE REQUESTED TO STAY INFORMED OF THE EVOLVING
WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

MZ



WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY:

INCREASING WINDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE PROMPTED
SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

FOR MARINE AND COASTAL INTERESTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF WILL PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING GENERALLY BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. THE
INCREASED WINDS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH LOW TIDE...
CAUSING THE HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 930 AND
10 AM...TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.



EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6
FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT.

THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A STRONG NORTHWARD
FLOWING CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. LIFE GUARDS AT DAYTONA BEACH
AND FORT PIERCE OBSERVED STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS MORNING. SWIM
WITH EXTRA CAUTION IF ENTERING THE OCEAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY NORTH OF ORLANDO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE A
WILDFIRE CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

SPRATT

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER LAKE COUNTY DURING THE MORNING. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE TOWARD DAYTONA BEACH AND ORLANDO BY MID DAY AND THEN MOVE
DOWN THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LEADING TO
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ROTATION AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A TORNADO.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PLAN OF ACTION SHOULD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. REMEMBER TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALERT
TO ON BEFORE YOU GO TO BED TONIGHT. IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HEAD INDOORS INTO A STURDY STRUCTURE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE A WILDFIRE
CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SPOTTER
NETWORKS SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE MOBILIZATION ON
WEDNESDAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

15/44/MOSELY

Its a coming..

And, you Floridians keep a watchful eye, now!

Yeah, you all stay safe and be ready to act in case of a tornado!

It'll be a long night ahead for Floridians, that's for sure! :o

Most of the activity is expected to affect the area toward and after dawn.


Ruskin, FL (Tampa Bay Area) NWS Radar:




Jacksonville, FL NWS Radar:




Melbourne, FL NWS Radar:

The 2nd line is getting stronger... and showing some rotation

...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SWRN GA
AND CNTRL FL PNHDL...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND WILL LIKELY
OVERTAKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS WRN GA/FL PNHDL DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VWP FROM PEACHTREE CITY...FORT RUCKER...EGLIN
AFB SHOW THAT WLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED AND DEEPENED TO AROUND 1KM
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. RESULTANT INCREASE IN MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS LED TO MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE
LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO SWRN GA AND THE CNTRL FL PNHDL. AHEAD OF THE
LINE...SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED AND 0-1KM SRH IS BECOMING
MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN THE LOW LCL AIR MASS. GIVEN
THAT THE LINE IS ORGANIZING...KINEMATICS BECOMING STRONGER AND
PRESSURE FALLS INCREASING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WT
964 NWD INTO THE NEWLY ISSUED WT 965.

FARTHER WEST...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME SERN AL AND EXTREME
WRN FL PNHDL...AND THE WW WILL BE TRIMMED FROM WEST TO EAST.