STORM2K

First off I see temps rising rapidly overnight from their current level of low to mid 50's to low to mid 60's by 6-9am on Wednesday. I see a high amount of rain from the frontal passages, warm and cold, with 1-2" likely. What I do not believe in is the formation of a strong low pressure which stalls out and keeps moderate+ rains in the metro area thru Friday or Saturday. I say this becasue I made a mistake in October and November of underestimating the push of high pressure and cold air on those two occasions; therefore I am accepting that this high will also be stronger than indicated and as such will serve to push the front/low out to sea before Thursday is over.

I hope you are correct, W53. I was dreading the idea of showers continuing into Saturday. Hopefully, it dries out Thursday with at least a day or 2 of seasonably cool weather.

The warm front did pass through but other than a temperature boost as we predicted it was unspectacular. Now it looks like we will break out into a period of increased sunshine for several hours and this may boost temps around or into 70's. There is impressive energy around VA/KY/TN border and when that and the associated cold front pass thru DC metro watch out for severe weather. That should occur between 4-7 pm. The prrotracted rain idea that we dismissed is now being dismissed by a lot of people but we still should have some heavy shoers into Thursday but Fri and Sat will be OK.

Things moving along faster. NWS ahs variety of tornado and severe ts watches. Look like heavy-severe ts in DC metro no later than 2pm. Still concerned about massive swirl of energy in sw VA and satellite seems to chow some clearing spots which could boost volatility.

Stay safe, W53. I am truly hoping that the severe weather does not make it into my area.

WEATHER53 wrote:First off I see temps rising rapidly overnight from their current level of low to mid 50's to low to mid 60's by 6-9am on Wednesday. I see a high amount of rain from the frontal passages, warm and cold, with 1-2" likely. What I do not believe in is the formation of a strong low pressure which stalls out and keeps moderate+ rains in the metro area thru Friday or Saturday. I say this becasue I made a mistake in October and November of underestimating the push of high pressure and cold air on those two occasions; therefore I am accepting that this high will also be stronger than indicated and as such will serve to push the front/low out to sea before Thursday is over.

This has worked out almost perfect. Other weather boards were going nuts over the low cutting off, the fact is the models will never catch one in advance, those type lows occur of their own volition with no real predicatability, and I knew from moment one that based on my historical alalysis perspective that there was a 10% chance of any such stalled coastal storm. Also, enjoyed nailing that wind storm last week. I like it here, I hope to assist in attracting more stable, weather hobbyists, and hope that some off site people can adopt, accept and approve of the advantages of stationing themselves here

Kudos W53 for nailing this. Looks like a partly sunny day today (no rain since about 4 AM), with temps in the low 50's. Then sunny and milder weather for the weekend with high temps between 60 and 64. A good weekend to complete all of my remaining autumn yardwork.

Thanks for the acknowledgment.
WWBB is down again as of Thursday morning.

WWBB down for the count?

Huff

WEATHER53 wrote:

WEATHER53 wrote:First off I see temps rising rapidly overnight from their current level of low to mid 50's to low to mid 60's by 6-9am on Wednesday. I see a high amount of rain from the frontal passages, warm and cold, with 1-2" likely. What I do not believe in is the formation of a strong low pressure which stalls out and keeps moderate+ rains in the metro area thru Friday or Saturday. I say this becasue I made a mistake in October and November of underestimating the push of high pressure and cold air on those two occasions; therefore I am accepting that this high will also be stronger than indicated and as such will serve to push the front/low out to sea before Thursday is over.

This has worked out almost perfect. Other weather boards were going nuts over the low cutting off, the fact is the models will never catch one in advance, those type lows occur of their own volition with no real predicatability, and I knew from moment one that based on my historical alalysis perspective that there was a 10% chance of any such stalled coastal storm. Also, enjoyed nailing that wind storm last week. I like it here, I hope to assist in attracting more stable, weather hobbyists, and hope that some off site people can adopt, accept and approve of the advantages of stationing themselves here

the low did cut off---just not as south as the models showed earlier but as of yesterday..they all showed a progressiveness...the ETA was the last to catch this. Nobody really believed the low would cut off in the Carolinas.

Ji wrote:Nobody really believed the low would cut off in the Carolinas.

Except maybe the NWS and TWC - whose local forecast for my area had shower chances through Saturday just as recently as mid-day Tuesday.