STORM2K

Nasty afternoon beginning here...

Tornado Watch

PENNSYLVANIA AREAL OUTLINE FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 971
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EST WED NOV 19 2003

PAC001-011-017-025-029-041-043-045-067-071-075-077-089-091-095-097-
099-101-107-109-133-192300-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 600 PM
EST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES:

ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE
JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
YORK

$$

Flood Watch

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-
192300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN PENNSYLVANIA...
DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BERKS...LEHIGH...
NORTHAMPTON...CARBON...BUCKS AND MONROE.

IN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX...WARREN...MORRIS...HUNTERDON...SOMERSET...SALEM...CAMDEN...
GLOUCESTER...MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON.

IN DELAWARE...
NEW CASTLE.

IN MARYLAND...
CECIL.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEREVER THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS
IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY CLOG STORM DRAINS.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS AND OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH
AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE
ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLOOD WARNING BE
ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.
$$

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT:
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI

GORSE

CORRECTED TO INSERT TIME PERIOD OF FLOOD WATCH (THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING).

All of this nastiness is just about to move in to my area. The sky is very threatening-looking now!

I'm watching this. Not looking pretty in that area for sure! :o

Wild Ride today in the Mid-Atlantic

Was surprised SPC issuing TOR watches this far north but it's been an eventful day. Local totals from 1.6" to (verified) 4.7", Numerous evacs and several water rescues from flooding...much more widespread flooding but less damaging than Isabel. Sustained winds 31MPH, PWG 44MPH, moderate flooding (my house is on a ridge that was an island this morning due to flooding ). Region will experience flooding overnight and into Thursday AM.

Winds have yet to mix down (Hot Springs: 19MPH, Afton Mountain: 23MPH). Limited convection except in eastern NC/VA. apparently, 1 small TOR in eastern NC.

Eta and GFS never agreed on this event even when down to short fuse timing. In this area, GFS timed out better but neither ever caught onto the bombing Low. My SLP dropped to 29.48"...deeper than either model progged. Slightly disappointed Eta didn't do well even at 12 hours out.

But an interesting day nonetheless.

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

I sort of consider it as a BUST ... especially since the SPC issued a Tornado Watch this far north ... hardly any storms were reported...IMO they should've issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch rather than a Tornado Watch, they are supposed to see the conditions that are favorable...and they obviously weren't today...

The jet stream must have been in the vicinity... one of the parameters needed for tornadic thunderstorms.

I can't see the National Severe Storms Forecast Center issuing a Tornado Watch without certain severe weather parameters being in range.

ColdFront77 wrote:The jet stream must have been in the vicinity... one of the parameters needed for tornadic thunderstorms.

I can't see the National Severe Storms Forecast Center issuing a Tornado Watch without certain severe weather parameters being in range.

couple wing it comments on this.

1. The Low didn't develop as progged...it *did* develop but IMO was farther north than their thinking and the 0Z models.

2. Overall, in the Mid-Atlantic, hts were higher than progged with this.

SPC typically doesn't overhonk but around here, the "read" was worse than the reality. That is preferable to multiple TORs with nothing in advance so it made for a bit more excitement during the rain and floods

Scott

that was the main limiting factor. We need instability to fuel the storms. The dynamics were there, just not everything came together.

Jim

Jim - I am very glad those things did not come together! Some rain and high wind gusts was enough for me.