STORM2K

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
162100-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
500 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1156 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-162200-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1156 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA BEACHES
SATURDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

MKT



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER BAJA CA WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AND
ACCELERATE EWD OVER THE GULF COAST WITHIN A LARGER SCALE CONFLUENT
FLOW REGIME OVER THE ERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW INVOF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE
SERN STATES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
FROM DAY 2 INTO DAY 3 ACROSS THE SE STATES AS THERMAL ADVECTIONS
WEAKEN AND LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FL
AREA...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY
MORE THAN LOW SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES.

It could happen.... If the storms can break Florida's "no storm zone" It just seems that the only time we get severe weather anymore (over the peninsula) is with the summertime thunderstorms---fronts and their associated squall lines fall apart after about Tallahassee and we may get a shower....

Nevertheless, SPC has the panhandle with a slight risk for tomorrow and the peninsula is currently in a less than slight area for day 3.... we shall see if that gets beefed up a little

That's true, Jekyhe. The low threat is mentioned for the state (even though it is the panhandle)... putting the issue on the table for that specific region and the peninsula. Thanks for your response.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA STARTING ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE
SOME SEA FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LATER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

$$

RJS/PRC


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-172300-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1200 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 301. WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

MZ/ARS


EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
505 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
171700-
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST.
LUCIE-
505 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORMING TODAY. HOWEVER...
RIP CURRENTS CAN SOMETIMES OCCUR NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 6
FEET WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

ON SUNDAY A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEST AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 6
FEET WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

67

Just remember about severe weather and Central Florida. NEVER say NEVER. I was 1 of many who said never on the afternoon of February 22nd 1998 when I was attending the Magic game and actually already saw the clouds streaking and swirling across the skies..

Now I have a scar on my kneecap and occasional haunting memories

Sorry if I talk about it too much sometimes.. But.. It's still incredibly fresh and painful