A tornado watch will likely be needed for parts of SE US
Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2004 2:05 pm
The following mesoscale discussion from the storm prediction center indicates a tornado watch, which will likely be issued for northern Florida, parts of Georgia, and South Carolina in the next hour or so.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN/CNTRL SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061851Z - 062115Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN FL...SERN GA...AND SC.
LATEST SURFACE MAP DEPICTED DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN GA WITH INTENSE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM
THE LOW AND ALONG THE SC/NC PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT...MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 20-25KT...EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE LOW TO THE FL PNHDL AND INTO
THE GULF. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT...AND SOUTH OF THE
PIEDMONT FRONT...WAS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM SRN GA TO NERN SC. WHILE DENSE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...A NARROW REGION OF GREATER SURFACE
HEATING APPEARS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA.
DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP EWD. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS. COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT...A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF...OR
WITHIN...THE LARGER CONVECTIVE MASS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS OR
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADIC AND/OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY EXIST EITHER
ALONG/NEAR THE STRONG PIEDMONT FRONT...OR PERHAPS NEAR THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS SERN GA/NRN
FL...WHERE GENERATION OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC VORTICITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
..CARBIN.. 02/06/2004
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN/CNTRL SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061851Z - 062115Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN FL...SERN GA...AND SC.
LATEST SURFACE MAP DEPICTED DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN GA WITH INTENSE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM
THE LOW AND ALONG THE SC/NC PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT...MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 20-25KT...EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE LOW TO THE FL PNHDL AND INTO
THE GULF. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT...AND SOUTH OF THE
PIEDMONT FRONT...WAS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM SRN GA TO NERN SC. WHILE DENSE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...A NARROW REGION OF GREATER SURFACE
HEATING APPEARS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA.
DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP EWD. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS. COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT...A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF...OR
WITHIN...THE LARGER CONVECTIVE MASS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS OR
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADIC AND/OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY EXIST EITHER
ALONG/NEAR THE STRONG PIEDMONT FRONT...OR PERHAPS NEAR THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS SERN GA/NRN
FL...WHERE GENERATION OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC VORTICITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
..CARBIN.. 02/06/2004