Better severe wx threat Wed/Thu
Posted: Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:10 pm
Model consistency is helping to strengthen the idea of a severe wx event over the southern plains, midsouth, and southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Another upper low over the SW US will eject out in the central United States and become negatively tilted. The same dynamics that are in place today, will be in place with the next system, possibly even stronger. GFS showing 60-65kt low level jet over Tennessee.
As we all know, the lack of instability curtailed the severe weather threat today. Instablity looks to be present for the upcoming event. A prolonged fetch of southerly winds will pump up 65 degree dewpoints into the souther portions of the country. CAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg could nose into Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee.
Bottom line, the potential exists for a significant severe weather episode. As stated above, model runs are showing some consistency, so it definitely bears watching. Stay tuned.
As we all know, the lack of instability curtailed the severe weather threat today. Instablity looks to be present for the upcoming event. A prolonged fetch of southerly winds will pump up 65 degree dewpoints into the souther portions of the country. CAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg could nose into Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee.
Bottom line, the potential exists for a significant severe weather episode. As stated above, model runs are showing some consistency, so it definitely bears watching. Stay tuned.
