UPDATED 1730 SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION -- WATCH OUT TX, AR, OK!!!
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2004 1:03 pm
Going to be a VERY ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW!! 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
SJT 15 NNE ABI 25 WSW SPS 40 NNW ADM 30 N MLC 20 W FSM 30 WNW HOT 10
NE TXK 25 N GGG 50 SSW TYR 30 NNW CLL 20 SW AUS 25 NE HDO 50 SSW JCT
40 S SJT 30 ENE SJT.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
P07 40 S MAF 10 NNE LBB 50 E AMA 20 N END 25 NNW IRK 25 SW RFD 15 N
CGX SBN 15 E IND 35 N HOP 30 SSW ESF 25 ENE VCT 60 WSW COT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 SSE LRD
...CONT... 10 SW ELP 20 NE DMN 40 N FHU 70 E PHX 25 SSW INW 60 WNW
GUP 45 W FMN 20 S DRO 35 SSE ALS 20 SSW TAD 50 NNW CAO 15 WSW EHA 30
ESE LBL 20 W P28 10 ESE SLN 25 NNE MHK 25 NE FNB 10 E DSM 20 NNW LNR
45 NW MKG 35 NE MKG 25 WNW FNT 20 ENE DTW ...CONT... CLE 20 E CMH 45
WNW HTS 20 SW LEX 10 S BNA 45 N MEI 50 SE 7R4.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX...SERN OK..AND WRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW...NOW BEGINNING TO TRANSITION EWD FROM THE NRN GULF
OF CA...IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. POWERFUL MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 90-110KT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN ACCELERATE
NEWD TO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
...NEARING 200M/12H...TRANSLATES NEWD FROM NWRN TX TO IA. LATEST
NCEP-SREF MEAN INDICATES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER
OK LATE TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK TO NRN IL BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXPAND FROM THE SRN PLAINS
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND AID WIDESPREAD AND
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURGING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.
MAGNITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL TX AND
EXPANDING INTO THE ARKLATEX...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING
ON THURSDAY.
...TX/SERN OK/WRN AR...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX AS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
SPREAD ENE FROM NRN MEXICO. STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
FORCING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WINDS. DOWNSTREAM WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS MAY BE SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION PRECEEDING THE UPPER TROUGH AND FORCING.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND EMERGING HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNCAPPED PROFILES TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY AFTERNOON.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND FORCING IN
A CORRIDOR FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. DEGREE OF SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COULD RESULT IN
LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLIC AND FAST
MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE AHEAD OF A STRONG DRYLINE SURGE...OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
SJT 15 NNE ABI 25 WSW SPS 40 NNW ADM 30 N MLC 20 W FSM 30 WNW HOT 10
NE TXK 25 N GGG 50 SSW TYR 30 NNW CLL 20 SW AUS 25 NE HDO 50 SSW JCT
40 S SJT 30 ENE SJT.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
P07 40 S MAF 10 NNE LBB 50 E AMA 20 N END 25 NNW IRK 25 SW RFD 15 N
CGX SBN 15 E IND 35 N HOP 30 SSW ESF 25 ENE VCT 60 WSW COT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 SSE LRD
...CONT... 10 SW ELP 20 NE DMN 40 N FHU 70 E PHX 25 SSW INW 60 WNW
GUP 45 W FMN 20 S DRO 35 SSE ALS 20 SSW TAD 50 NNW CAO 15 WSW EHA 30
ESE LBL 20 W P28 10 ESE SLN 25 NNE MHK 25 NE FNB 10 E DSM 20 NNW LNR
45 NW MKG 35 NE MKG 25 WNW FNT 20 ENE DTW ...CONT... CLE 20 E CMH 45
WNW HTS 20 SW LEX 10 S BNA 45 N MEI 50 SE 7R4.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX...SERN OK..AND WRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW...NOW BEGINNING TO TRANSITION EWD FROM THE NRN GULF
OF CA...IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. POWERFUL MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 90-110KT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN ACCELERATE
NEWD TO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
...NEARING 200M/12H...TRANSLATES NEWD FROM NWRN TX TO IA. LATEST
NCEP-SREF MEAN INDICATES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER
OK LATE TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK TO NRN IL BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXPAND FROM THE SRN PLAINS
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND AID WIDESPREAD AND
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURGING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.
MAGNITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL TX AND
EXPANDING INTO THE ARKLATEX...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING
ON THURSDAY.
...TX/SERN OK/WRN AR...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX AS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
SPREAD ENE FROM NRN MEXICO. STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
FORCING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WINDS. DOWNSTREAM WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS MAY BE SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION PRECEEDING THE UPPER TROUGH AND FORCING.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND EMERGING HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNCAPPED PROFILES TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY AFTERNOON.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND FORCING IN
A CORRIDOR FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. DEGREE OF SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COULD RESULT IN
LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLIC AND FAST
MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE AHEAD OF A STRONG DRYLINE SURGE...OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE.