High Risk for Southern Plains...
Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2004 11:37 am
Code: Select all
190
ACUS01 KWNS 041633
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
ADM 30 WNW MWL 35 N ABI 60 N ABI 10 NE FSI 15 ENE OKC 30 NE BVO 35
NNW JLN 35 NNE JLN 15 NNE UMN 10 N FYV 15 ENE MLC 20 SSE ADM.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
SJT 60 NE BGS 25 ENE LTS 30 N CNU 20 S SZL 45 N POF ARG TXK TYR AUS
45 N HDO 65 W JCT 35 W SJT.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
P07 15 ENE MAF 50 ENE AMA 25 E HUT 35 N MLI 15 SE CGX 15 SE IND 35
WSW UOX 25 SW LCH ..CONT.. 45 S CRP 50 S LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 W TUS 35 NW
GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 45 SE GUC 35 NNW EHA 40 WNW CNK 40 E SUX
35 NW FRM 70 S DLH 15 SW IWD 25 WSW MQT 55 ENE ESC 30 SW APN 10 NW
DTW 35 SSE MIE 40 SSW MSL 20 SW 7R4.
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN
TX/CENTRAL AND ERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN TX
NEWD INTO AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK EWD INTO WRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CREATE AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE
LOW IN SWRN TX WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO N CENTRAL OK BY 00Z
AND INTO IA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS
OK AND AR SHOULD LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE
CYCLONE...WHILE TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/SRN
GREAT LAKES...
UNUSUALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. BINOVC ACROSS
SWRN/NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S.
THESE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 7C/KM MID LAPSE RATES WILL
YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONGER THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST. EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 70 KT WITH 1KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2 IN THE WARM SECTOR.
AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VERY
DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE
STRONGEST TORNADOES WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN TX ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK
WHERE THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT. IF THE STORMS DO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS OPPOSED TO MORE
CELLULAR STORMS...THEN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
GREATER THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SERN KS/WRN
AR/SRN MO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SQUALL LINE
AND WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.
A SQUALL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
PACIFIC FRONT IN WRN TX. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
SWRN/CENTRAL TX WITH MLCAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG. THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD ALSO ACCELERATE TO 50-60 KT AS THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES INTO
THE REGION. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE WITH
STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN ROTATION...BUT THE LINEAR FORCING AND
STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS
LIKELY..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 03/04/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
Although I am not familiar with how far Dallas' coverage area is.
