STORM2K

Most models are showing a pretty strong system next week, potentially bringing some heavy rain and possibly some t-storms to the MA and NE...any thoughts?

Many of the numerical models and the respective ensembles feature
a neutral or negatively tilted upper component, so portions of the Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic states, and Southeast could be at risk for supercellular
thunderstorms if enough unstable air is present within the warm sector of the
hybrid-type (transforming from shortwave to longwave) cyclone. There is evidence of
ridge building from the Bahamas to near Bermuda, which would aid in high
dewpoint advection and increase the threat for heavy rainfall in the eastern third
of the U.S.

http://www.weathermatrix.net/archive/wx ... 0000.shtml

I am sure it won't be much more than a few passing showers in SE PA.

Ummmm no John...take a look at some models.

Colin - the last time we were supposed to see a lot of rain, we did not receive very much. In fact, precipitation as a whole has pretty much avoided our area for the last 5 weeks. I know what the models are saying, but I have a feeling the storm will trend weaker/drier between now and Monday morning.

Yup, you're right John...models are already beginning to look much drier.

I usually look at the GFS's precipitation totals when it is 5 - 7 days out and cut them in half. That's pretty much what has happened to all of the "big dog" storms this year.

18z GFS drier then 06z and 12z GFS runs...

06z:






12z:




And the much drier 18z....




However it is just ONE run of the GFS....

Severe weather is difficult to discern this far out...GFS has shown a strong negatively tilted system for quite a few days now but it is a weakness in the model to over amplify at this range. 84 hr Eta from 12z has a much weaker positively tilted system keeping severe to a minimum...While explosive severe situations can happen in March, the continued influx of dry polar air across the eastern US will likely keep the rich dewpoints from returning across the southeast even if the GFS is correct. There will be some severe with the system Sun/Mon if the GFS is correct...but we will have to wait another week or two for it to get really interesting. Too many things can go wrong for early next week to be a truly explosive situation....

Looks like this is going to produce very little in the way of rainfall for my area - which is a shame because we could use it.

Yup...probably between .1 and .25" QPF John.