STORM2K

Looks like some severe weather may be possible across this region today.


Here is the Dodge City, KS HWO:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO TYPOS DAY ONE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM CST
TODAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO DODGE TO HAYS. THE STORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THUS THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP, HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS.
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE TO ASHLAND.
THE SAINT JOHN, PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL HAVE AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

STAY ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION BY VISITING OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF A HAYS TO MEADE LINE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACKWELL...TO
OKLAHOMA CITY....TO ARDMORE. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR EAST OF A
DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN TODAY...A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...OR CAPPING INVERSION...WILL ACT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES... THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY MAR 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND DORMANT
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WILL THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES... BUT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ONE OR MORE DAYS OF
ACTIVATION THIS WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF LULL... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY. FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH... ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE VERY LOW.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 241 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BELVUE...OR ABOUT 21 MILES EAST OF
MANHATTAN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
EMMETT
ONAGA

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM CST...

AT 256 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. MARYS...OR ABOUT 21
MILES EAST OF MANHATTAN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

EMMETT AND LACLEDE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. MOVE INDOORS
NOW...AND AVOID WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE LIKELY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 315 PM...

AT 313 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
STORM WHICH HAD PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.