Possible Severe for DFW Wednesday/Long Term Outlook
Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2004 7:32 am
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST THIS MORNING. EARLY SPRING SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTH TEXAS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ONE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE LAST NIGHT PRODUCED A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. NORTH TEXAS IS OUT OF THE ACTION TODAY.
HOWEVER... BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA BY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE EAST OF THE LOW...BUT THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME ...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THE MODELS REPLACE THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH...IF THIS IS CORRECT...EARLY APRIL MAY BECOME A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTH TEXAS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ONE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE LAST NIGHT PRODUCED A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. NORTH TEXAS IS OUT OF THE ACTION TODAY.
HOWEVER... BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA BY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE EAST OF THE LOW...BUT THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME ...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THE MODELS REPLACE THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH...IF THIS IS CORRECT...EARLY APRIL MAY BECOME A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.