STORM2K

FXUS62 KTBW 170021
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
720 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

...SHORT TERM...
WILL BE MAKING A QUICK ZONE UPDATE SOON TO REVISE TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS. WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO REMOVE
AFTERNOON POP WORDING SOON FOR THE INTERIOR. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE
IS TO TAKE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING AS DISTANCE SPEED TOOLS SHOW
THE PRECIP ARRIVING VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. WITH THE SHIFT
NORTHWARD IN UPPER DISTURBANCE...FORWARD MOTION OF SQUALL LINE
WILL SLOW...BUT PREFER NOT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS
DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING CURRENT RAIN BANDS IN THE GULF. THE
KEY TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL BE THE VORT LOBE EJECTING
OUT OF NORTHERN CUBA AND INTO THE KEYS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND
MESO-ETA. WATER VAPOR VERIFIES THIS SOLUTION AND CURRENT MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHWARD...THIS PRECIP SHOULD FILL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST NICELY ALBEIT WEAKENED FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. MAY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING TO UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. AS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO'S IN COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT ONLY THE STRONGEST FEW
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
STORM CORES TO THE NEEDED 15K TO 20K FEET.

...MARINE...
AGAIN...WILL REVISE WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR REVISED TIMING OF THE
LINE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

.TBW...NONE.

JTD

Pooring like crazy here right now

I want rain! *sob* lol, I know , soon enough! Let's hope tomorrow, I need some time off!

I was just reading my local NWS discussion, and it seems they have backed off a tad on the precip amounts for my area. Still looks to me like there could be a few rumbles up here after midnight. John you look to be in a good place to see some rain and storms tonight. Have you seen the latest radar? Looks like ol Chad is getting wet

Yes Amanzi, I see a squall line, pretty mean looking, bearing down on the west coast.. Wonder if i should be concerned?? LOL They always weaken before they hit us..


Johnathan

lol I know the feeling John. everything is pretty much staying just to the south of me. I do not think the line will hold together for me this far north. It does look like a bit of a meanie John. Just keep an ear or an eye out.

Well the NWS discussion says it should slow and weaken some before it comes in. Still thinking a midnight timeframe arrival.

Very Impresive.... Hey Rob.... Going to hold together enough to bring me some more rain to my area later?

Yes....I think this last wave and batch of heavy rains will have enough convection to slide across the state for the night and I dont think it'll be severe as we've seen the past few days and week or so. The only problem is that this threat will continue from now until Monday night as I said in chat last night and there is also enough colder air aloft to produce the hail. So beware of this and hopefully there wont be any warnings out at 3am for you folks!

There IS a Hazardous weather statement for the area From Daytona all the way down the east half to Martin County.

Here is the read from it:

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BECAUSE OF CONTINUED QUITE COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES COULD AGGRAVATE STANDING
WATER PROBLEMS THAT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

Isolated severe weather is a possibility, however, as highlighted before, heavy rainfalls are the primary threat this go around.

Latest RUC QPF run indicates weakening of the squall line (which IMO it does too quickly). However, look back along the Gulf Coast and the Panhandle of Florida on this run.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... rcp&loop=1

Almost made its way over to me now and still looks like a fairly strong line. Stronger than i thought it would be at this point.