STORM2K

It appears we skipped spring and are heading into the summer monsoon season

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

410 AM MST SAT MAR 20 2004



...NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY...
TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY... LIGHT WINDS... HIGHS 66 TO 76 ABOVE 7000 FEET...76 TO 83 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY... LIGHT WINDS... LOWS 27 TO 36 ABOVE 7000 FEET...35 TO 41 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY... A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. HIGHS 65 TO 75 ABOVE 7000 FEET...75 TO 81 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LOWS 30 TO 39 ABOVE 7000 FEET...38 TO 45 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 62 TO 72 ABOVE 7000 FEET...72 TO 78 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 32 TO 40 ABOVE 7000 FEET...39 TO 46 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 59 TO 69 ABOVE 7000 FEET...67 TO 76 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 27 TO 37 ABOVE 7000 FEET...36 TO 41 BELOW 7000 FEET.


Dennis

Well, enjoy the rain Dennis!

Looks like you'll probably see some rain in the next couple of days. How rare is it for Arizona to have thunderstorms at this time of year?

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like you'll probably see some rain in the next couple of days. How rare is it for Arizona to have thunderstorms at this time of year?

It's quite rare for thunderstorms in the Desert Southwest outside of the monsoon season and winter time ... however, with active SBJ setups, cutoff low pressure systems can sometimes set up and generate enough instability to create convective-type rains/snows (thunder included).

Truthfully, decent shots of rainfall/snowfall is a blessing for this time of year as we transition out of winter and into spring ...

SF

Yep...that's definitely a blessing! Enjoy it!

Dennis I hope that this rain aliviate somewhat the fire dangers in that region.

features an impulse from off of Baja plus a backdoor front in NM which are expected to provide enough moisture and dynamics for mostly mountain thunderstorms. These little Springtime impulses in May and June (which I call wicky-do's) can bring mostly high basers to us then but have been known to turn no threat days in West TX into something far different. All rain is going to do now is generate more grass which while good for wildlife will be a fire control problem later. In terms of pattern dynamics and wind flow, this is nothing even remotely resembling the monsoon.

Steve

Aslkahuna wrote:features an impulse from off of Baja plus a backdoor front in NM which are expected to provide enough moisture and dynamics for mostly mountain thunderstorms. These little Springtime impulses in May and June (which I call wicky-do's) can bring mostly high basers to us then but have been known to turn no threat days in West TX into something far different. All rain is going to do now is generate more grass which while good for wildlife will be a fire control problem later. In terms of pattern dynamics and wind flow, this is nothing even remotely resembling the monsoon.

Steve

Oh I know, I was just comparing this to what seemed like a monsoon pattern! Another factor, this will also aid in the snowpack melt which will increase the runoff and put an end to it. Runoff from the snowpack is projected to last only 2 weeks compared to a slow melt off that lasts well over 6 weeks, not good for water storage at San Carlos, Roosevelt

Dennis

as the snowmelt in UT in 1983 where we went from Winter to Summer in two days in late May. The resulting floods were severe and two main streets in SLC were converted into rivers to prevent flood waters from completely overruning Temple Square and destroying the historic buildings and their archives including the LDS Geneology archives. There's an apochryphal story about a man who was cited for fishing without a license after catching some trout on State Street in SLC one of the two streets converted into rivers. Later that Summer, I issued the first flood warning for Dugway since 1952.

Steve