Could Get Busy Later Today in the Central Plains...
Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2004 1:36 am
323
ACUS01 KWNS 270544
SWODY1
SPC AC 270541
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDS 60 NE AMA 30 N DDC 55 S EAR 35 NW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 SSW DSM 35
ESE IRK 20 N VIH 35 SE HRO PRX 15 SSW FTW 30 N ABI 20 W CDS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE EWN 20 SSE GSP
30 NNE HOP MDH 15 N JBR 25 NNW ELD 25 NNW GGG 35 NNE ACT 45 SW BWD
60 NE BGS 30 NE PVW 45 NNW CAO 25 SW LHX 30 NNE LHX 35 WSW GLD 20
ENE AIA 45 N MOT ..CONT.. 85 NNW CMX 15 NW AUW 10 NE MMO 15 E MIE
30 NNE HGR 10 S JFK.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 60-90M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY
28/00Z. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS REGION. SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT IN
PIECES WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WRN OK BY
EARLY EVENING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM/DEEPEN
ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN TX ALLOWING DRY LINE TO MIX EWD INTO SWRN
OK...ARCING SWWD INTO WCNTRL TX. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WOULD INITIALLY FAVOR A CONTINUED MOISTENING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A TIME SERIES OF SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN TX
SUGGEST DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THIS REGION. AS A
RESULT...A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...1500-2000J/KG...WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND NWD ACROSS
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ZONE OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 60F.
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DEEPEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CLOVER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BUT WEAKER CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE INTO NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH EARLY CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY BE
SUPERCELL IN NATURE...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL SHOULD EVOLVE AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODE AS FRONT
SWEEPS EWD ACROSS KS/OK. DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
WRN MO/NWRN AR BEFORE CONVECTION BLEEDS OFF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO SWRN OK.
...NRN PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
MAINLY BY STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SHARPENING FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD FORCE A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS EWD
INTO MN WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WINDS GUSTS.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 03/27/2004
ACUS01 KWNS 270544
SWODY1
SPC AC 270541
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDS 60 NE AMA 30 N DDC 55 S EAR 35 NW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 SSW DSM 35
ESE IRK 20 N VIH 35 SE HRO PRX 15 SSW FTW 30 N ABI 20 W CDS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE EWN 20 SSE GSP
30 NNE HOP MDH 15 N JBR 25 NNW ELD 25 NNW GGG 35 NNE ACT 45 SW BWD
60 NE BGS 30 NE PVW 45 NNW CAO 25 SW LHX 30 NNE LHX 35 WSW GLD 20
ENE AIA 45 N MOT ..CONT.. 85 NNW CMX 15 NW AUW 10 NE MMO 15 E MIE
30 NNE HGR 10 S JFK.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 60-90M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY
28/00Z. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS REGION. SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT IN
PIECES WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WRN OK BY
EARLY EVENING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM/DEEPEN
ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN TX ALLOWING DRY LINE TO MIX EWD INTO SWRN
OK...ARCING SWWD INTO WCNTRL TX. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WOULD INITIALLY FAVOR A CONTINUED MOISTENING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A TIME SERIES OF SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN TX
SUGGEST DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THIS REGION. AS A
RESULT...A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...1500-2000J/KG...WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND NWD ACROSS
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ZONE OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 60F.
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DEEPEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CLOVER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BUT WEAKER CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE INTO NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH EARLY CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY BE
SUPERCELL IN NATURE...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL SHOULD EVOLVE AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODE AS FRONT
SWEEPS EWD ACROSS KS/OK. DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
WRN MO/NWRN AR BEFORE CONVECTION BLEEDS OFF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO SWRN OK.
...NRN PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
MAINLY BY STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SHARPENING FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD FORCE A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS EWD
INTO MN WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WINDS GUSTS.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 03/27/2004
I have a friend out that way watching and waiting to pounce! 
