STORM2K

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 3:19 pm**

here is an excerpt from a recent post on the wx-chase mailing list that pretty well sums up what I've been saying since mid-march:

Well, since things have been quite lately, I decided to head on over to
the HPC website and look at their 3-7 day forecast discussion. What I
saw, hurt... it hurt real bad. Context: discussion of the upper level
ridge/trough positions over the eastern Pacific through the next 7 days:

"...ANALOGS BASED ON THE D+8S ARE 1951/66/70/73/88 WITH BEST FIT
AS 1973. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1970 EACH OF THESE YEARS HAD
A COLD APRIL AND MAY IN THE EAST AND WARM WEST...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN. "

Now, of course my eye was immediately drawn to "ANALOGS" and "88" (1988).
Certainly, this can't be right. Out of curiousity, I go in search of
tornado reports from, oh, 1951-today. Well, I run across at graphic at
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/ustor ... -2000.html ... Hmm... I
can't help but notice that EVERY single one of those years listed above
(except '51, since the graph doesn't go back that far) are strong minimums
in total tornadoes relative to surrounding years. Is this surprising?
Perhaps this is over-speculation and generalization, but the "cold april
and may in the east" screams EAST-COAST TROUGH, and the "warm west"
supports WEST-COAST RIDGE... Uh oh...

This year's season is going to be a wuss, plain and simple. Looks like a good year for storm watchers to take a vacation.

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 3:34 pm**

My goodness. The season has just started. And I for one (if this is true) am glad that no one will be threatened by tornadoes.

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:30 pm**

Lindaloo wrote:My goodness. The season has just started. And I for one (if this is true) am glad that no one will be threatened by tornadoes.

I am with you Linda, except I don't mind a good gusty thunderstorm and some rain every once and awhile!

I looked at a graph STORMLESS posted on Sunday about tornado frequency, and his point is not valid really. It shows that May and June are typically the busiest months; April just begins the increase. And, what, it is only April 5?

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 5:02 pm**

Me either Brian.

Great reply!!

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 5:21 pm**

We all know weather patterns change sometimes with little or no warning. I am with you Lindaloo :wink:

They key is to be prepared for whatever happens

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 6:08 pm**

Stormless, I remember you doing this last year, and basically, the month of May came with an explosion ... not every month or year is going to be like May 2003, but slower than last May -- yes, but lackluster ... simply don't know ... remember the MR models didn't exactly do very well this winter, mishandling the SBJ, and the screaming PAC JET ...

Plain and simple, it's just way too early to tell or write 2004 severe season off just yet ... but I am definitely getting bored of the quiet weather ...

SF

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 6:54 pm**

Looks like a good year for storm watchers to take a vacation.

Enjoy yourself and we will see you next season then stormless ;-)

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 7:35 pm**

Stormless2003 wrote:here is an excerpt from a recent post on the wx-chase mailing list that pretty well sums up what I've been saying since mid-march:

Well, since things have been quite lately, I decided to head on over to
the HPC website and look at their 3-7 day forecast discussion. What I
saw, hurt... it hurt real bad. Context: discussion of the upper level
ridge/trough positions over the eastern Pacific through the next 7 days:

"...ANALOGS BASED ON THE D+8S ARE 1951/66/70/73/88 WITH BEST FIT
AS 1973. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1970 EACH OF THESE YEARS HAD
A COLD APRIL AND MAY IN THE EAST AND WARM WEST...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN. "

Now, of course my eye was immediately drawn to "ANALOGS" and "88" (1988).
Certainly, this can't be right. Out of curiousity, I go in search of
tornado reports from, oh, 1951-today. Well, I run across at graphic at
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/ustor ... -2000.html ... Hmm... I
can't help but notice that EVERY single one of those years listed above
(except '51, since the graph doesn't go back that far) are strong minimums
in total tornadoes relative to surrounding years. Is this surprising?
Perhaps this is over-speculation and generalization, but the "cold april
and may in the east" screams EAST-COAST TROUGH, and the "warm west"
supports WEST-COAST RIDGE... Uh oh...

This year's season is going to be a wuss, plain and simple. Looks like a good year for storm watchers to take a vacation.

Please explain to me how a MR model with analogs turns into an entire season of the same??????

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 7:52 pm**

Glad to know I am not alone.

Posted: **Mon Apr 05, 2004 9:07 pm**

ECMWF has a potential threat but NOT for the Plains states on Day 7 (Next Monday - April 12th) ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Posted: **Tue Apr 06, 2004 7:55 pm**

vbhoutex wrote:
Stormless2003 wrote:here is an excerpt from a recent post on the wx-chase mailing list that pretty well sums up what I've been saying since mid-march:

Well, since things have been quite lately, I decided to head on over to
the HPC website and look at their 3-7 day forecast discussion. What I
saw, hurt... it hurt real bad. Context: discussion of the upper level
ridge/trough positions over the eastern Pacific through the next 7 days:

"...ANALOGS BASED ON THE D+8S ARE 1951/66/70/73/88 WITH BEST FIT
AS 1973. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1970 EACH OF THESE YEARS HAD
A COLD APRIL AND MAY IN THE EAST AND WARM WEST...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN. "

Now, of course my eye was immediately drawn to "ANALOGS" and "88" (1988).
Certainly, this can't be right. Out of curiousity, I go in search of
tornado reports from, oh, 1951-today. Well, I run across at graphic at
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/ustor ... -2000.html ... Hmm... I
can't help but notice that EVERY single one of those years listed above
(except '51, since the graph doesn't go back that far) are strong minimums
in total tornadoes relative to surrounding years. Is this surprising?
Perhaps this is over-speculation and generalization, but the "cold april
and may in the east" screams EAST-COAST TROUGH, and the "warm west"
supports WEST-COAST RIDGE... Uh oh...

This year's season is going to be a wuss, plain and simple. Looks like a good year for storm watchers to take a vacation.

Please explain to me how a MR model with analogs turns into an entire season of the same??????

Analogs are helpful only to the extent of knowing what the actual climo ATTM was. However, as noted the pattern has been progging EC troffiness, which has verified. +PNA promotes EC trofs and that's not a particularly good thing for TORs. What would be interesting would be verifying where/if SECONUS/Bermuda High was located in May. That helps point whenre the trof predominates, in the means...coast/west of Appalachians/near Mississippi River.

I wouldn't blow off May yet, despite analog hints, but watch where the trof continues to settle in as the northern jet eventually retreats.

Scott

Posted: **Tue Apr 06, 2004 8:07 pm**

Stormless2003 wrote:here is an excerpt from a recent post on the wx-chase mailing list that pretty well sums up what I've been saying since mid-march:

Well, since things have been quite lately, I decided to head on over to
the HPC website and look at their 3-7 day forecast discussion. What I
saw, hurt... it hurt real bad. Context: discussion of the upper level
ridge/trough positions over the eastern Pacific through the next 7 days:

"...ANALOGS BASED ON THE D+8S ARE 1951/66/70/73/88 WITH BEST FIT
AS 1973. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1970 EACH OF THESE YEARS HAD
A COLD APRIL AND MAY IN THE EAST AND WARM WEST...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN. "

Now, of course my eye was immediately drawn to "ANALOGS" and "88" (1988).
Certainly, this can't be right. Out of curiousity, I go in search of
tornado reports from, oh, 1951-today. Well, I run across at graphic at
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/ustor ... -2000.html ... Hmm... I
can't help but notice that EVERY single one of those years listed above
(except '51, since the graph doesn't go back that far) are strong minimums
in total tornadoes relative to surrounding years. Is this surprising?
Perhaps this is over-speculation and generalization, but the "cold april
and may in the east" screams EAST-COAST TROUGH, and the "warm west"
supports WEST-COAST RIDGE... Uh oh...

This year's season is going to be a wuss, plain and simple. Looks like a good year for storm watchers to take a vacation.

Everything I know - everything I see -
It's all useless, now!!! :fools:

Posted: **Wed Apr 07, 2004 9:03 am**

I agree... there will NOT be ANY tornadoes at all this month...

Oh wait... too late... there already have been! :roll:

STORM2K

This post from WX-Chase says it all

This post from WX-Chase says it all

Re: This post from WX-Chase says it all

Re: This post from WX-Chase says it all

Re: This post from WX-Chase says it all