NWS Jax disc
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...SEVERE WX POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY VERY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE. A LITTLE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING BUT NOTHING DENSE AS OF YET. CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO CHANGE RAPIDLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS POTENT SPRING STORM TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GOOD SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COLLISION POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING DECENT INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PM SO SOME SEABREEZE
INDUCED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOMETHING
STRONG TO DEVELOP AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BIG
QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. AM DISCOUNTING GFS AND IS
65KT H85 JET AND LEANING TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION...WHICH IS WEAKER BUT
STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS FIRST
SHORT WAVE EXITS...WX ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING AND
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY UNSTABLE EXPECT SCATTERED TSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASING AND LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN. POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX EXISTS WITH THIS
IMPULSE AS WELL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST WITH SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
BEFORE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AXIS SHUTS THINGS DOWN.
SPC day 3 outlook (tues)
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...SERN GA ACROSS FL...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS SQUALL LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AND SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP SLOWER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...ALLOWING DIURNAL HEATING TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...SEVERE
THREAT WOULD INCREASE OVER THIS AREA.