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Alabama Severe Threat? (New Member)
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:18 am
by Brett Adair
Hello. I am Brett Adair, located in East-Central Alabama and I am simply put a weather nut. I am a senior at Sylacauga High School and a pending freshman at Mississippi State University and majoring in broadcast meteorology. I am team leader/founder of the Central Alabama Storm Trackers and we chase for local media and Emergency Management. Glad to be here guys.
Well....to the topic of discussion. What do you guys think about severe weather in my area today? Warm front pushing north with Td's on the rise. Seems as if a baroclinic zone is trying to setup near me......(yay) which could aid in giving me some supercell, possibly tornadic potential later into this afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds are being observed to my south with temperatures rocketing through the mid 60's. If instability comes into play as the cold pool aloft comes across, lapse rates should go steepe and fire convection in the area. Any thoughts?
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:24 am
by Rainband
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:29 am
by Brett Adair
I've already taken a look at the Day 1. Looks like they enhance the threat a bit here in east AL. WV imagery still shows the MCS out in the Central GoM.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?southeast&type=wv
It's cutting off the inflow up this way, but some dry air advecting in from this "pin wheel" effect of the ULL to the west is allowing for the clouds to break and some destabalization to occur especially across central and southern AL. If this continues, I expect an outlook upgrade for portions of the state on the 1800z update.
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:36 am
by Rainband
Brett Adair wrote:I've already taken a look at the Day 1. Looks like they enhance the threat a bit here in east AL. WV imagery still shows the MCS out in the Central GoM.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?southeast&type=wvIt's cutting off the inflow up this way, but some dry air advecting in from this "pin wheel" effect of the ULL to the west is allowing for the clouds to break and some destabalization to occur especially across central and southern AL. If this continues, I expect an outlook upgrade for portions of the state on the 1800z update.
We need the rain here in florida bad. Luckily the severe weather has been limited but we are in for another possible round tonight. Stay safe and again welcome
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:41 am
by Brett Adair
Ehhh messed up twice LOL
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:42 am
by Brett Adair
Rainband wrote:Brett Adair wrote:I've already taken a look at the Day 1. Looks like they enhance the threat a bit here in east AL. WV imagery still shows the MCS out in the Central GoM.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?southeast&type=wvIt's cutting off the inflow up this way, but some dry air advecting in from this "pin wheel" effect of the ULL to the west is allowing for the clouds to break and some destabalization to occur especially across central and southern AL. If this continues, I expect an outlook upgrade for portions of the state on the 1800z update.
We need the rain here in florida bad. Luckily the severe weather has been limited but we are in for another possible round tonight. Stay safe and again welcome
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:42 am
by Brett Adair
Rainband wrote:Brett Adair wrote:I've already taken a look at the Day 1. Looks like they enhance the threat a bit here in east AL. WV imagery still shows the MCS out in the Central GoM.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?southeast&type=wvIt's cutting off the inflow up this way, but some dry air advecting in from this "pin wheel" effect of the ULL to the west is allowing for the clouds to break and some destabalization to occur especially across central and southern AL. If this continues, I expect an outlook upgrade for portions of the state on the 1800z update.
We need the rain here in florida bad. Luckily the severe weather has been limited but we are in for another possible round tonight. Stay safe and again welcome
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:47 am
by Rainband
Brett Adair wrote:Ehhh messed up twice LOL
If you mess up on a post hit the edit button in the top right of the post and then make your changes
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:52 am
by Brett Adair
Well as I was saying...I watched that single supecell develop over Glades Co. FL yesterday on the outflow boundary ahead of the MCS before it developed into a full blown squall line. That could be the situation today with 40-50 knots of deep layer shear over the region. I think that moderate destabilization will occur across the Central and Southern FL Penninsula late this morning. With any outflow that occurs as lapse rates steepen, watch for convective initation to begin around 1-2 pm. SPC knows that this will occur and more watches will be possible throughout the afternoon.
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:56 am
by wx247
It definitely bears watching. Welcome to the board!
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:57 am
by Rainband
Brett Adair wrote:Well as I was saying...I watched that single supecell develop over Glades Co. FL yesterday on the outflow boundary ahead of the MCS before it developed into a full blown squall line. That could be the situation today with 40-50 knots of deep layer shear over the region. I think that moderate destabilization will occur across the Central and Southern FL Penninsula late this morning. With any outflow that occurs as lapse rates steepen, watch for convective initation to begin around 1-2 pm. SPC knows that this will occur and more watches will be possible throughout the afternoon.
Thanks for the information
I will be watching
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 9:00 am
by Brett Adair
No problem.....if you guys get time, check out my site.
We are looking to open up local forecast office all across the nation. We have many viewers presently and all forecasters are given exams before accepted into the organization. We are working on getting more local offices open, finding more national forecasters, and developing chase teams. We have guys from Norman in the org, so we provide some of the best information available.
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 10:48 am
by wx247
Brett Adair wrote:No problem.....if you guys get time, check out my site.
We are looking to open up local forecast office all across the nation. We have many viewers presently and all forecasters are given exams before accepted into the organization. We are working on getting more local offices open, finding more national forecasters, and developing chase teams. We have guys from Norman in the org, so we provide some of the best information available.
I like the site... I am going to some more searching there.
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 10:53 am
by Brett Adair
Thanks! We put alot of time into our forecasts and we love to work with organizations such as Storm2K! Back to the topic....we have destabalized a bit here.....up to 70° with a point of 66°. CAPE values up to 1000J/kg at the SFC and EHI's has peaked 1 now.
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 11:13 am
by wx247
Looking at some of the new data... a little farther east looks like the prime breeding ground for some of these storms. We will have to wait and see.