STORM2K

the next 12 hours ... (6:30 pm EDT - time of post)

RUC progged MSLP/QPF next 12 hour loop

RUC Progged Convective Precip next 12 hours loop

Furthermore, looking at SPC RUC Obs maps at 22z, the strongest 700mb-500mb UVV's currently lie in Eastern AL/Western GA (-10) and down into the GOM (-14)... with a strong 300mb jet (closing in or over 100kts - maxima over Northern GA at this time) ... as the area around the base of the trough moves eastward into the moist, unstable air, strong divergence aloft coupled with strong UVV's and directional wind shear (veering wind profiles) should set the stage for numerous severe thunderstorms later this evening and tonight, with a potential for an isolated tornado or two, particularly in South Carolina, where the strongest veering profiles currently exist. Towards midnight, and into the early morning, the area of convection should eventually mesh into a large squall line that looks to extend from Northern GA moving NE into the Carolinas by daybreak (much like last night) and extending well into Florida.

SF

Thanks Mike. I think

I'm still waiting for more storms here.. Still seems kinda quiet

Same here!

It's pretty quiet here.. Maybe some light rain.. I'm about to check the short term and the radar image

Latest radar image shows everybody but me getting rained on lol

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmlb.shtml

There's the link to it

SF,

Also checking out soime data,,,,,,In Southern GA into AL there will be strong low level stretching with 3km VGP reaching up to .2m^2/s^2. Strong low level storm inflow combined with the strong wind fields aloft (strong shear profiles) a tornadic threat seems likely with this MCS. Weak tornadoes though probably nottin greater than F0,,,but the dynamics show tornadic potential.

Thank you Mike for your analysis.. I'd like to see what those storms in the Gulf look like.. I'm willing to bet they'll intensify as they get closer to our shores..

Also,,,check out the ample LOW LEVEL MOISTURE!!!!! H8 dew points up to 15.3C

One more point to bring up as we head towards the later hours of the night,,,,,the H5 cold pool shifts eastward with our cold core upper level low,,,,H5 temps to -15C into Central GA,,,,,this might bring in a large hail threat,,,if this H5 cold pool moved in quicker to steepin these lapse rates then damnnn,,,,lol.

But with this (+) for severe wx,,,,there is a minus (-) and thats BL cooling,,,,,but still one hell of a show on radar tonight.

Mike.. I assume us here in Central Florida are going to get rocked a bit too..?

Maybe not as bad as GA.. but I did have 5-6 hours of sunshine today and temps. easily around 80-82 degrees

The potential increases with sunshine and temperatures in the low 80's, as well as dewpoint temperatures in the 60's...
but there are other parameters needed for thunderstorm development.

Josephine96 wrote:Thank you Mike for your analysis.. I'd like to see what those storms in the Gulf look like.. I'm willing to bet they'll intensify as they get closer to our shores..

Not sure bout that. I have my doubts these storms will strengthen,,,,,but if your in Northern FL along panhandle then YES they will,,,,,I'm talking about the Central FL shore where eventhough these storms are ina fairly cap environment moving towards a uncap area they are also moving into a area where instability is barely in existence,,,,lol. Despite that the lapse rates are very very weak,,,,,shear profiles are also weak,,,,3km EHI is at 0,,,but Northern FL different story

Seems we here in Central Florida always luck out lol..

By the way Tom.. I know there are other parameters lol

Sure, the atmosphere is ripe for possible strong to severe or even weak to strong thunderstorms and things don't materialize even a number of hours after the confident statements and forecasts are issued.

Thought you did, John... wasn't completely sure with what your post contained.

I still think it could get interesting as the line of storms approaches..

Allexpert Mike wrote:

Josephine96 wrote:Thank you Mike for your analysis.. I'd like to see what those storms in the Gulf look like.. I'm willing to bet they'll intensify as they get closer to our shores..

Not sure bout that. I have my doubts these storms will strengthen,,,,,but if your in Northern FL along panhandle then YES they will,,,,,I'm talking about the Central FL shore where eventhough these storms are ina fairly cap environment moving towards a uncap area they are also moving into a area where instability is barely in existence,,,,lol. Despite that the lapse rates are very very weak,,,,,shear profiles are also weak,,,,3km EHI is at 0,,,but Northern FL different story

Thanks, Mike, for adding to the technical discussion especially in regards to the next s/w disturbance and associated cold-pool aloft (which helps destroy caps quite easily) ... very busy here tonight and it's been a long time since I've posted this much in one night. The reason I see that the tornado watch #70 didn't generate nearly a thing was from weak subsidence, plus the best UVV's were in North Carolina, and Georgia/Florida during the afternoon ... airmass recovery after the early morning storms was very slow to occur ...

Now to add to the MCS in the GOM, yes, I agree with Mike that the MCS will likely do the same thing as it did last night, fall apart as it approaches land, but a gust front will regenerate new storms ... much like last night's/early morning occurrence ...As for Northern Florida, the window of opportunity is small in the Panhandle, and likely why a WW wasn't issued for that region ... but profiles in Northeastern Florida .. well, quite a dynamic looking situation.

The storms breaking out in SE AL, FL Panhandle and in GA will eventually begin to consolidate into a large squall line as we continue deeper into the night hours ... furthermore, a strengthening nocturnal LLJ will probably appear across the region, and upper divergence will cross across the Southeastern States further enhancing convergence at the SFC, and allowing for good ventilation of the storms. Shear profiles are quite impressive (although speed shear is lacking), but I can't rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two ... maybe a few supercells before the cells begin to consolidate. And as Mike stated, some weaker tornadoes are possible within the squall line, especially where LEWP's (Line Echo Wave Pattern) might form overnight.

SF

Looks like a possible tornado East of Naples at the moment.
Heads up.