STORM2K

...SERN UNITED STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
STRENGTHENS. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TRAINING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AIR MASS RECOVERY...BUT
THIS CAN NOT BE DETERMINED 3 DAYS OUT. THUS...A BROAD SLIGHT RISK
AREA COVERS THE REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
MOIST.



...SERN UNITED STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
STRENGTHENS. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TRAINING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AIR MASS RECOVERY...BUT
THIS CAN NOT BE DETERMINED 3 DAYS OUT. THUS...A BROAD SLIGHT RISK
AREA COVERS THE REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
MOIST.

Deeper moisture and favorable winds should result in the Southeastern States seeing the potential for severe thunderstorms and potential flooding rains into Friday..

What do you think about the severe potential back in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri tomorrow Stormsfury?

WX247, for your area, I would look for the primary threat being severe hail ...

Around the cold 500mb low, h5 temps are progged to run between -18 and -25C tomorrow, more than sufficient to support severe hail.
The activity should be driven by daytime heating and should diminish down after sunset.

Thanks. Flooding may also be a concern here in localized areas I think.

Based on radar trends and the Latest RUC soundings and model QPF potential -- definitely in NE OK, SE KS, Northern AR, and Southern MO has the potential for some heavy rainfalls in the next 12 hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... rcp&loop=1