STORM2K

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY ERODING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS OF
WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FROM SURFACE
HEATING...HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISM WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
(21Z) OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. 18Z MESO ETA SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 100 MB MEAN LAYER CAPES INCREASING TO 1600 J/KG BY
00Z...WITH A SURFACE TEMP/DEW OF 74/61 RESPECTIVELY. SURFACE FLOW
HAS VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED SHEAR...0 TO 3
STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2S2.
MARGINALLY LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH 9 TO 13 DEGREE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE AREA OF
INTEREST ALSO IS POSITIONED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
85 KNOT SPEED MAX EJECTING ACROSS THE CORN BELT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD EXHAUST ALOFT FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS.

LOOK FOR STORMS TO ERUPT OVER SE KANSAS...NE OKLAHOMA...WESTERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN 500 AND 700 PM. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SEVERAL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 800 FOR SE KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

I guess this is the calm before the storm as many would say. Because it has not necessarily been going nuts down in the tornado watch box as of yet.

907
ACUS11 KWNS 202216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202216
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

VALID 202216Z - 210015Z

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN ACROSS WW AREA E
OF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...INCLUDING STORMS NOW EVIDENT OVER OSAGE
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED NEAR SWRN CORNER OF WW MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AS IT MOVES TOWARD TUL AREA.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES MEETING AT SFC LOW -
LOCATED ALONG BORDER NE OF PNC. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL OK AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NWRN PORTIONS WW THROUGH
3Z...GREATLY REDUCING SEVERE POTENTIAL. DRYLINE SSWWD ACROSS OKC
AREA ALSO WILL MOVE EWD BUT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM LOW SSEWD ACROSS OSAGE
TO OKMULGEE COUNTIES AND SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD 15-20 KT. TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED WHERE DISCRETE STORMS MOVE ACROSS AND
JUST E OF THIS BOUNDARY. SFC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SLY E OF LOW AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN KS...MAXIMIZING SRH. SERN KS/NERN OK REGION
SHOULD REMAIN IN AREA OF MAXIMIZED SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETERS
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BASED ON SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR
WHILE LCL AND CAP STRENGTH EACH REMAIN LOW RELATIVE TO FARTHER S.
MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE...DECREASING GRADUALLY EWD INTO RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2004

PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

35809373 35549716 37999714 38259369

Here is the md graphically...