My USAWX-Birmingham Forecast 4-30-04
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2004 10:32 am
USAWXBHM-AFD
Gloomy Day Expected
Currently....a shortwave along the Louisana coastline has an ongoing MCS associated moving ENE @ 20 mph. It is dropping some very heavy rainfall across that region and has prompted a Flash Flood Watch to be issued. This could pose a flooding issue into the BHM area as it approaches from the SW. High PWAT values of over 1.25" support the heavy rainfall threat. Weak wind profiles suggest that showers/storms that do develop will not move very quickly. Current radar analysis shows that outflow pushing out ahead of the MCS is beginning to develop activity in already destabalizing areas across southern portions of hte forecast area. With surface based instability building and pressure calls increasing shear, will put thunder in the zones and will monitor strengthening of convective development throughout the day. POP's to 60 with temperatures in the mid 70's.
The Weekend Ahead
Upper level system ejecting out of the SW will continue to direct impulses of energy this way and give us chances of showers/storms through most of the period. ETA/GFS keep us in this type of pattern thru Sunday. With abundant low level moisture being in place....expect showers to pop at any time. A dry slot could take place during period tomorrow before the main dynamic forcing comes across late tomorrow night and Sunday. Strong/Severe storms will be possible in this timeframe. Forecast will be tweaked throughout the weekend.....but wet weather is the main threat.
Severe Weather and Flood Risks
Monitor Hazardous Weather Discussions and Short Term Updates through the weekend as the event unfolds. Stay with the USA-Weather Birmingham LIVE StormTrack Team for complete and continuous severe weather coverage.
Zones...due out by 2100z.
FIC ADAIR[/img]
Gloomy Day Expected
Currently....a shortwave along the Louisana coastline has an ongoing MCS associated moving ENE @ 20 mph. It is dropping some very heavy rainfall across that region and has prompted a Flash Flood Watch to be issued. This could pose a flooding issue into the BHM area as it approaches from the SW. High PWAT values of over 1.25" support the heavy rainfall threat. Weak wind profiles suggest that showers/storms that do develop will not move very quickly. Current radar analysis shows that outflow pushing out ahead of the MCS is beginning to develop activity in already destabalizing areas across southern portions of hte forecast area. With surface based instability building and pressure calls increasing shear, will put thunder in the zones and will monitor strengthening of convective development throughout the day. POP's to 60 with temperatures in the mid 70's.
The Weekend Ahead
Upper level system ejecting out of the SW will continue to direct impulses of energy this way and give us chances of showers/storms through most of the period. ETA/GFS keep us in this type of pattern thru Sunday. With abundant low level moisture being in place....expect showers to pop at any time. A dry slot could take place during period tomorrow before the main dynamic forcing comes across late tomorrow night and Sunday. Strong/Severe storms will be possible in this timeframe. Forecast will be tweaked throughout the weekend.....but wet weather is the main threat.
Severe Weather and Flood Risks
Monitor Hazardous Weather Discussions and Short Term Updates through the weekend as the event unfolds. Stay with the USA-Weather Birmingham LIVE StormTrack Team for complete and continuous severe weather coverage.
Zones...due out by 2100z.
FIC ADAIR[/img]