STORM2K

SBCAPE/0-3KM SRH/SWEAT 18z Sat MESO-ETA


PWATS


Boundary Layer - 6KM Shear


Hmmm.....I'm not sure what this suggest to you, but to me it suggests a big flooding threat for the southern portion of the country on today. Models are in line and it looks like it's definately going to be a washout. From MS eastward expect instability in the late afternoon hours to allow convection to develop into multi-cell clusters will weak deep layer shear in place. High PWATs and cold air aloft will sustain a large hail/damaging microburst potential. Further west near the trough, PVA and sfc boundaries could inhibit in some small scale torandic thunderstorms across the area today. College Station TX to the west will be too stable for any severe potential on today. The OH Valley could be a target area late in the afternoon with a mid level dry slot beginning to push in the region. As dynamics lift out watch for storms to fire in that area as well.

Brett, I can definitely vouch for Coastal South Carolina ... with PWATS over 1.75" (finally, a very decent rain threat with many locales already receiving over an inch of rain overnight) with more to follow in waves as ripples of s/w's run across the region ...

So far, the best convergence and strongest convection in this region has remained offshore and/or just hugging the coastline ...



1 hour totals ... as of 10:30 am, convection just offshore are producing rainfall rates in excess of 2" an hour...



Storm totals ... since April 29th, 2004 ... as of 10:30 am EDT (May 1st) ... upwards of 6" of rain offshore ... with an area over 12" just within the radar scope well offshore.

I agree. A Carolina soaker is definately in store. I have lots of things to do today and I do not need all of this rain!

Brett Adair wrote:I agree. A Carolina soaker is definately in store. I have lots of things to do today and I do not need all of this rain!

I sympathize .. I took annual leave today (for a break from work) ... 55 hours for the last 4 weeks, 6 days a week has left me in the need of a full weekend off ... and guess what ...

Oh well, it's all good ... but it definitely killed all the outdoor plans I had for the weekend ...

I understand what you mean there man. I have been trying to get everything together so I can head out to college.....and this weather just hasn't been cooperating at all. I'll live though I do suppose.

Brett Adair wrote:I understand what you mean there man. I have been trying to get everything together so I can head out to college.....and this weather just hasn't been cooperating at all. I'll live though I do suppose.

That's all we can be expected to do ...

Getting a break from the action right now ...

SF

Well up here, tomorrow may be a problem...if everything sets up right, training of heavy rain may become a concern...and we've had some recent heavy rain events. (Monday we almost had 2", and a few before that...) ... so flooding may become a concern later tomorrow night.

I'll keep everyone updated...and everyone else stay safe and keep us updated!

I tend to agree.....the main dynamics are moving up that way and the higher moisture content will come up there as well.

Isn't this amazing.....prediction above...multi-cell clusters to develop in my area and look what is occuring. Seems that they are staying below severe limits at this time, but that could change soon. What was SPC thinking when they took us out in the 1730z? haha..