High risk of severe from Omaha through Des Moines today.
Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 3:13 am
If Saturday night wasn't bad enough for the Midwest and Plain states, it appears today could end up being one of if not the worse tornado day of the year as all the ingredients are in place for a damaging and deadly tornado outbreak from eastern and southeastern Nebraska through most of Iowa and eventually northern Illinois.
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the central plains during the day Monday with the warm front extending eastward from northern Kansas through western Missouri in the morning hours on Monday. Meanwhile a cold front trails the low across southwest Kansas. Throughout the day, expect this warm front to track northward into east central Nebraska and Iowa and into northern Illinois. The low should be centered over southern Nebraska by later this evening with the trailing cold front and dryline into Kansas and Oklahoma. The triple point should be located near Grand Island, Nebraska by early evening.
At the same time, a very strong upper air disturbance will run right on top of all of these surface features, enhancing the wind fields including increasing wind aloft, and increasing directional wind shear. Southeast winds at the surface with stronger southwest winds aloft will favor a 90 degree turning of the winds with height, favoring strong/violent tornadic supercells by later afternoon and early evening. This shear combined with extreme instability along and to the north of the warm front will favor rapidly developing supercells by afternoon and lasting through the evening hours with very large hail, damaging wind, and destructive tornadoes/violent tornadoes likely.
The timing we're looking at will include severe/tornadic thunderstorm development around mid afternoon across southern Nebraska and into extreme southwest Iowa with destructive tornadoes very likely. This area of severe convection will develop rapidly and affect the areas from Omaha through Des Moines and the Quad Cities through early evening. All three cities are included in a high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be very large hail to softball sized, wind gusts of 80-100 mph and locally stronger, and destructive to potentially deadly tornadoes. The most destructive tornadoes initially will be across southeastern and eastern Nebraska and into southwestern Iowa. We also need to keep in mind that most places, especially across eastern central Iowa have been flooding over the past several days and they do not need anymore rain. Unfortunately today's events could lead to devastating and deadly flooding in portions of this severe weather outlook area. Remember to turn around and don't drown if you run into an area of flood waters ahead of you. It could save your life.
More updates will be given on this severe weather outbreak potential throughout the day. Bottom line though is it's looking to be as violent, if not worse than what we dealt with Saturday night from Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska eastward through Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities area too. Stay safe everyone as we are in a severe weather mode again today.
Jim
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the central plains during the day Monday with the warm front extending eastward from northern Kansas through western Missouri in the morning hours on Monday. Meanwhile a cold front trails the low across southwest Kansas. Throughout the day, expect this warm front to track northward into east central Nebraska and Iowa and into northern Illinois. The low should be centered over southern Nebraska by later this evening with the trailing cold front and dryline into Kansas and Oklahoma. The triple point should be located near Grand Island, Nebraska by early evening.
At the same time, a very strong upper air disturbance will run right on top of all of these surface features, enhancing the wind fields including increasing wind aloft, and increasing directional wind shear. Southeast winds at the surface with stronger southwest winds aloft will favor a 90 degree turning of the winds with height, favoring strong/violent tornadic supercells by later afternoon and early evening. This shear combined with extreme instability along and to the north of the warm front will favor rapidly developing supercells by afternoon and lasting through the evening hours with very large hail, damaging wind, and destructive tornadoes/violent tornadoes likely.
The timing we're looking at will include severe/tornadic thunderstorm development around mid afternoon across southern Nebraska and into extreme southwest Iowa with destructive tornadoes very likely. This area of severe convection will develop rapidly and affect the areas from Omaha through Des Moines and the Quad Cities through early evening. All three cities are included in a high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be very large hail to softball sized, wind gusts of 80-100 mph and locally stronger, and destructive to potentially deadly tornadoes. The most destructive tornadoes initially will be across southeastern and eastern Nebraska and into southwestern Iowa. We also need to keep in mind that most places, especially across eastern central Iowa have been flooding over the past several days and they do not need anymore rain. Unfortunately today's events could lead to devastating and deadly flooding in portions of this severe weather outlook area. Remember to turn around and don't drown if you run into an area of flood waters ahead of you. It could save your life.
More updates will be given on this severe weather outbreak potential throughout the day. Bottom line though is it's looking to be as violent, if not worse than what we dealt with Saturday night from Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska eastward through Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities area too. Stay safe everyone as we are in a severe weather mode again today.
Jim
