STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD...EXTREME NERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 241341Z - 241545Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-16 Z OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD
BE REQUIRED.

LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED RICH MOISTURE NWD INTO NEBRASKA JUST
ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE OVER ERN
NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST RETURN...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE NWD INTO SD...WHERE THE LFC WILL BE REACHED.

MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDER FORECASTING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER
WRN SD/NEB ON LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE INDICATE LIFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THIS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE
INDICATE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004


ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 241403Z - 241600Z

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
INTO ERN PA AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL PA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MODIFIED OKX SOUNDING WITH LOW 80S OVER UPPER 60S INDICATES
2000-3000 MUCAPE DEVELOPING.

WIND FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH LAGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR FAST STORM
MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004


ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

And there is plenty more where that came from for sure. Though the one for the plains is main a hail threat, I fully expect an MD issued for the High/MDT risk areas by midday. The SPC outlook indicaates that storm initiation could occur rapidly around 1-3pm this afternoon in eastern Nebraska.


Oh, joy! I have my last day of World Civilizations class, a FINAL from 2 to around 3pm this afternoon.

Do you know what county Waco, NE is in,,,, my nephew is at boarding school there...and I want to watch but I don't know what county that is???

Garnet, Waco is in York County, about 50 miles west of Lincoln or so. The city is in the eastern section of the county, just east of the city of York!

Thanks for the information... I am sure they are not part of the watch area *closing eyes and not looking at outlooks*.....I'm sure they are too far North ,,or West or something.....

My sister is in that area in PA I guess I should give her a heads up.

Colin, raine (Jackie) and coriolis (Ed) are in that area , too.

Take care, guys!

Eric