STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...

VALID 241939Z - 242115Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

AS OF 19Z...MESOANALYSIS PLACED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF CNK WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD INTO SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO AND THEN
SEWD INTO E-CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD TO JUST W OF
SLN/HUT. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING NE OF
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CLAY/ADAMS COUNTIES IN
S-CNTRL NEB WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED ALONG WARM FRONT OVER RICHARDSON/NEMAHA COUNTIES IN FAR
SERN NEB. AIRMASS S OF DEVELOPING TSTMS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON /PER 18Z TOP SOUNDING/ WHERE MLCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 4000 J/KG.

EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG
WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /LCL HEIGHTS 800-1000 M/ WILL
SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... EXTREME
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL PROMOTE VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

as if that was possible. Already tornadoes reported in Southeast Nebraska.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN/W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...

VALID 242028Z - 242200Z

INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER NERN KS.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AS OF 2010Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM DONIPHAN SWD INTO LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES
IN FAR NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM W OF STJ SWD TO
W OF OJC. LOCAL AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM ACROSS THIS
AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION.

WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE W
ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. HERE TOO...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762

Thanks snoop. It is getting ready to get out of control.