STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SRN IND/NRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 251419Z - 251545Z

RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

AS OF 1410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF TSTMS OVER SRN IL/FAR WRN KY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40KTS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING THAT COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING/
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP
INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250 AND 400
M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY.

CONTINUED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/25/2004


ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

My question is that will it be a tornado watch or a severe tstorm watch since they indicated isolated tornadoes are possible.

I imagine it will be a tornado watch. It looks likely at least IMHO.

It's a severe tstm watch. While isolated tornadoes are not to be ruled out, the main severe wx threat appears to be damaging winds and hail at this point with the wind flow more unidirectional. Once again though with the strong instability in place, supercells and bow echos with isolated tornadoes cannot be impossible from Ohio and eastern Kentucky eastward through northern WV, PA, northern VA and MD too as the day wears on.

Jim