STORM2K

006
FLUS43 KEAX 261759
HWOEAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271100-

...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO
KIRKSVILLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE TO KANSAS CITY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MACON TO
WARRENSBURG TO PAOLA.

ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT OR DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS...
HOWEVER WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...THE RECENT ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS MADE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES QUITE LOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL WITH THE THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY STORMS MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE WIDE SPREAD
FLOODING...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR SUNDAY THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT WIDE SPREAD FLOODING COULD BE
A PROBLEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY.

A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND MON INTO A STRONG THETA-E BOUNDARY WHICH SETS UP ON FRI AND SAT. STRONG CONVERGING LLVL FLOW WITH FRONTS AND DRYLINES, STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE, AND STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY ALL FOCUS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. 00Z GFS RUN LOOKS VERY TORNADIC FOR HERE ON SUNDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT SINCE IT IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MANY WILL BE CAMPING OR HAVING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SUNDAY.

KEEP AN EAR TO THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND TORNADO THREATS AS THAT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO THRUST ITSELF INTO THE PLAINS THAT DAY.

senorpepr wrote:I saw this come through the email at work...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY.

A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND MON INTO A STRONG THETA-E BOUNDARY WHICH SETS UP ON FRI AND SAT. STRONG CONVERGING LLVL FLOW WITH FRONTS AND DRYLINES, STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE, AND STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY ALL FOCUS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. 00Z GFS RUN LOOKS VERY TORNADIC FOR HERE ON SUNDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT SINCE IT IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MANY WILL BE CAMPING OR HAVING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SUNDAY.

KEEP AN EAR TO THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND TORNADO THREATS AS THAT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO THRUST ITSELF INTO THE PLAINS THAT DAY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL USHER IN THE SUMMER MONTHS.
THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ACROSS THE WEST PLAINS. THIS WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY.

AIRMASS DESTABILIZES MIDDLE OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LI -6 TO -8 AND SHEAR EXCEEDS 55 KTS WHILE CAPES OVER 2000 JG/KG. MID LVL LAPSE RATES 8.5 TO 9. AS COLD FNT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY, POWERFUL DYNAMICS AS STRONG S/W KICKS OUT INTERACTS WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES.

THIS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOS. HOWEVER, BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE COULD BE SKETCHY THUS LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT, THIS WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL MONITORING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.

simplykristi wrote:Looks like a potentially dangerous day Sunday here in the KC area.

Kristi