No relief likely for the HOT/DRY SE through next WED...
Posted: Fri May 28, 2004 9:11 pm
And if anything it may just get HOTTER through the end of next week But i DO have some good news, i did save a bunch of Money on my car insurance by switching to Geico!!
On a more serious note....Tonight's ECMWF is painting a VERY warm and DRY picture for the southeast through at least THU of next week, the following will be CRITICAL in determining just how hot it gets between now and then.
1) Position of the deep layer ridge, the axis of which is progged to be over FL through much of the early and middle portion of the next week.
2) The strong westerly flow around the high and downsloping wind component along the east side of the Appalachians, could (through compressional warming) help to make an already bad situation WORSE.
3) 850H temps the ECWMF suggests may reach as high as 20 DEG C across interior central GA on WED, but as an overall rule remain ABOVE 16 DEG C through the period, which ASSUMING that we have full or near full sun on those days should yield MAX temps in the ~29-34 DEG C (84-93F) range.
4) Dry ground and inability to fire off afternoon convection due to pronounced capping underneath the thermal ridge.
So, with the combination of the dry ground plus the downsloping component, more lower to mid 90s are likely for INTERIOR FL, GA, SC. Remember though, cloud debris from upstream convection or anvil blowoff in the absence of a sufficient mid level jet to get rid of it would hold a lid on things somewhat.
THE POTENTIAL CHANGES AFTER THU:
And there are some on the way IF the ECMWF pulls through on this one. EVEN for portions of FL.
On THU ECMWF develops more amplified trough across the EUS, with 500mb heights decreasing to between 570 and 582 DM, and 850H temps dropping to between 12-16 DEG C over SC, GA and NRN NC, and falling into the 16-17C range over much of FL. a STARK contrast to the near 20 DEG C readings possible during the early and middle portions of the week on the heels of a 15-20 KT NW flow at 850mb.
as far as precip is concerned, as the ridge flattens some on THU and FRI it should allow more sufficient LLVL moisture (as evidenced by increasing RH's at 850mb) to get into the region, potentially firing off convection in association w/ the sea breeze boundaries.
Further north into GA and the Carolinas....a rather potent s/w diving down into the WRN OH valley on WED which swings through the region on THU should generate enough large scale lift to initiate widespread convection. Severe MAY be a possibility also.
On a more serious note....Tonight's ECMWF is painting a VERY warm and DRY picture for the southeast through at least THU of next week, the following will be CRITICAL in determining just how hot it gets between now and then.
1) Position of the deep layer ridge, the axis of which is progged to be over FL through much of the early and middle portion of the next week.
2) The strong westerly flow around the high and downsloping wind component along the east side of the Appalachians, could (through compressional warming) help to make an already bad situation WORSE.
3) 850H temps the ECWMF suggests may reach as high as 20 DEG C across interior central GA on WED, but as an overall rule remain ABOVE 16 DEG C through the period, which ASSUMING that we have full or near full sun on those days should yield MAX temps in the ~29-34 DEG C (84-93F) range.
4) Dry ground and inability to fire off afternoon convection due to pronounced capping underneath the thermal ridge.
So, with the combination of the dry ground plus the downsloping component, more lower to mid 90s are likely for INTERIOR FL, GA, SC. Remember though, cloud debris from upstream convection or anvil blowoff in the absence of a sufficient mid level jet to get rid of it would hold a lid on things somewhat.
THE POTENTIAL CHANGES AFTER THU:
And there are some on the way IF the ECMWF pulls through on this one. EVEN for portions of FL.
On THU ECMWF develops more amplified trough across the EUS, with 500mb heights decreasing to between 570 and 582 DM, and 850H temps dropping to between 12-16 DEG C over SC, GA and NRN NC, and falling into the 16-17C range over much of FL. a STARK contrast to the near 20 DEG C readings possible during the early and middle portions of the week on the heels of a 15-20 KT NW flow at 850mb.
as far as precip is concerned, as the ridge flattens some on THU and FRI it should allow more sufficient LLVL moisture (as evidenced by increasing RH's at 850mb) to get into the region, potentially firing off convection in association w/ the sea breeze boundaries.
Further north into GA and the Carolinas....a rather potent s/w diving down into the WRN OH valley on WED which swings through the region on THU should generate enough large scale lift to initiate widespread convection. Severe MAY be a possibility also.