STORM2K

Good morning everyone. Today is gonna be the worse severe weather/tornado outbreak day of the year 2004 with a high risk of widespread severe thunderstorms including large damaging killer tornadoes later this afternoon across the central Plains.

Taking a look at the morning analysis shows an unseasonably strong upper trough plowing through the central part of the country. This feature is so strong, we have heavy mountain snows in late MAY across the mountains of northern Utah and into southeastern Idaho. A heavy snow warning is in effect through noon local time on Saturday for this particular area with 7-14 inches of snow expected. We also saw a damaging tornado two days ago in Tenino, Washington outside of Olympia, which shows you just how strong this storm system really was even before today's major outbreak.

During the afternoon and evening hours this Saturday, be on the lookout for long lived, very large, damaging, killer tornadoes in the central Plains from eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota southward through eastern South Dakota, western Iowa, and into east central Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Very strong height falls will occur in advance of an approaching long wave trough, which will pass over the Rockies this today. Ahead of this feature, there will be very strong instability, and very strong veering of the winds with height with that low level shear present. As a result, deadly tornadoes are likely today in the central Plains. Some of the communities impacted today includes Sioux Falls, Sioux City, Omaha, Grand Island, Kansas City, Topeka, Manhattan, Junction City, Wichita, Salinas, Andover, Red Rock, Enid, and Oklahoma City.

Just to draw this outbreak into perspective, the last F5 tornado occurred on May 3rd, 1999 in Moore, Oklahoma. Today's outbreak has a heightened potential for F3,F4, and F5 type destruction including in Oklahoma City area. On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the worse, this outbreak today is getting pretty close to a 10 across the central plains with scores of tornadoes, deadly tornadoes in this region. We certainly cannot rule out 80-120 tornado reports today alone.

However is the danger over after todays destructive outbreak?? Absolutely not. This severe weather outbreak will just track further east and spread into new areas as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted. On Sunday, expect large, deadly, and destructive tornadoes and derecho type winds to occur from Indianapolis, Chicago, and St Louis eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Some additional communities in the path of this outbreak on Sunday includes Nashville, Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Dayton, Indianapolis, and Fort Wayne.

This is shaping up to be the worse tornado outbreak of the year. Just take yesterdays 10 or so tornadoes and multiply that by 15. That's exactly the number of tornadoes we're looking at seriously for this holiday weekend. Over 150 tornadoes are likely in the next two days. There may even be a few tornadoes Monday as this system finally moves off the eastern seaboard. However just hope for the best, but please prepare for the worst. In fact the weather channel is so highly confident of this deadly tornado outbreak they have notify for everyone to use for free this weekend. Go to http://www.weather.com and click on notify at the top of the page if anyone is interested in subscribing to that service. This could save your life this memorial day weekend in the central and eastern United States.

I'll definitely keep you all updated on this widespread and destructive severe weather outbreak, an outbreak that could be as bad or worse than May 3rd-4th, 1999 with 119 tornadoes on both days. Stay safe everybody.

Jim

It is NOT looking good today and tonight from the sound of things. I am already up and it is Sat. I pay for the notify service from TWC.

Kristi

simplykristi wrote:It is NOT looking good today and tonight from the sound of things. I am already up and it is Sat. I pay for the notify service from TWC.

Kristi

I have the same thing too. It definitely can save your life on days like today. Keep me posted on how things go today Kristi and hopefully everything is ok with you and everyone else living in tornado alley because that's the most important thing that will likely come out of this outbreak.

Jim

I am for sure going to keep abreast of the latest developments today, more so than ever. My brother has his high school graduation party today. Hopefully, storms hold off until after mid-afternoon when the festivities end.

The HWO for my area and surrounding areas look very ominous. I think my weather radio alert is in store a busy day!

WXBUFFJIM wrote:
Just take yesterdays 10 or so tornadoes

More like yesterday's 2-3 tornadoes; pretty obviously about 3-4 reports for each tornado.

Of course, to actually know how many tornados there were yesterday, will have to wait 2-4 days for the Sioux City NWS survey report.

Why does that SPC outlook map look similar to May 4, 2003? SOB. Looks like I need to make sure the emergency kit is still good.

--snoopj

Better safe than sorry. The key today is whether tornadoes stay over open country or strike major metro areas. That makes a huge difference to the actual significance of an outbreak like this. Sure we're looking at the likelihood of destruction. That's why all the major metros and towns in the central Plains are absolutely proned to this. Tis outbreak has deadly potential up it's sleeve and I see it being the worse tornado outbreak of the year.

Jim

Derecho wrote:

WXBUFFJIM wrote:
Just take yesterdays 10 or so tornadoes

More like yesterday's 2-3 tornadoes; pretty obviously about 3-4 reports for each tornado.

Of course, to actually know how many tornados there were yesterday, will have to wait 2-4 days for the Sioux City NWS survey report.

There will be plenty more surveys done in the next week just to get a handle on todays outbreak. 150 reports could easily mean 50 actual tornado tracks. But hey if an F4-F5 strikes a major metro area, that's what the big concern is today. Omaha, KC, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Tulsa are all cities proned to such an occurrance. There are many towns along the way. The key today is whether we see tornadoes that are long lived and deadly strike open fields or strike heavily populated areas and metro zones.

In any rate, definitely it looks to be the most active outbreak of the year without question.

Jim

Uhm, I have never seen the SPC list the major cities that are likely to be affected before! This definitely looks to be territory not chartered for awhile!

Oh, yeah, and my metro area was listed!

It's something you don't see everyday. I can see why Dr Greg Forbes is nervous about this. Most NWS offices are also hinting at damaging tornadoes today as well. Plus to see this well advertized 5-6 days out is amazing. Now we see what happens this afternoon.

Jim

I had TWC on most of yesterday will doing chores. They continually highlighted today as being a significant tornado event. I just viewed the SPC day 1 map and saw the High Risk area. It looks to be a very serious day across the core of Tornado Alley. Lets hope people heed warnings issued today and be ready to protect their lives.

Wow It'a 8am in the morning and look the winds are already gusting 20+ mph bringing the juice north throughout the area..doesn't take a wizard to see things are gonna break loose..catchup time for the lack of tornados alrighty..ugh..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... t&nplots=1

Stay safe everyone

More and more moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.

Kristi

There's already a tongue of good boundary layer moisture w/ 66-72F dewpoints advecting northward on the heels of the strong southerly flow in the lower levels (as Aquawind did a nice job pointing out), across MUCH of OK, Southeast KS, and MO at 14z. through not much in the way of surface heating YET east of the dry line.

Should be a heck of an evening, 850H flow is basically 35-55 KT almost straight out of the south, backing around to westerly at 500mb, should be prefect for long-track/destructive tornadoes later this evening and continuing through the overnight hours especially in proximity to the triple point.

simplykristi wrote:More and more moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.

Kristi

Dew points here in the Omaha area are in the mid to upper 60s at 10am!`

Threat will continue east overnight, into WRN MO, and IA, courtesy of strong LLJ and associated Low level isentropic flow. SVR potential shifts tomorrow into the Ohio valley.

All of you in the risk area: TWC said last night it was going to provide the Notify service for free this weekend because of the holiday, so please, if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio, get that.

Everyone in those affected areas today stay safe and check in!

It was COLD last night - compared to what we've been witnessing recently. Currently, it's only 61 degrees and we're headed for 70. Tonight's low is supposed to be 51 degrees and that's what it had to be last night. The good news is the humidity is low ( 38%) and it's a beautiful day. The front that went through last night I'm sure is a sign of the strength of the systems out in the Plains today.

Stephanie wrote:Everyone in those affected areas today stay safe and check in!

It was COLD last night - compared to what we've been witnessing recently. Currently, it's only 61 degrees and we're headed for 70. Tonight's low is supposed to be 51 degrees and that's what it had to be last night. The good news is the humidity is low ( 38%) and it's a beautiful day. The front that went through last night I'm sure is a sign of the strength of the systems out in the Plains today.

Yeah....i know what you mean.....Dropped to a chilling 35 F up here last night.

850mb temps are progged slightly warmer in the 2-4 C range by the 06z ETA, but CAA continues w/ NW flow across ERN NY, under mostly clear skies (good set-up for radiational cooling), and Surface dewpoints in the upper 20s. So Another cold night (similarly cold temps) likely around here.