Page 1 of 2
Is there a tornado threat in D.C. tomorrow?
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 11:42 am
by yoda
Does anyone know? SPC and the LWX AFD seems to highlight this... any help would be appreciated! Thanks!
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 11:46 am
by Stormsfury
Right now, the data suggests more of a severe thunderstorm potential with damaging straight lines, possible severe hail with the possibility of tornadoes, but nowhere near what's expected to break out today in AR/MO/IL ...
SF
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 11:50 am
by yoda
I know it would not be like today. But SPC was suggesting it due to low LCL's and strong deep layer shear, among other things. Do you have any maps that show hodographs for tomorrow near D.C.?
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 11:54 am
by yoda
SPC 0800 OUTLOOK DAY 2
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD
OF WIND MAX AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW. BY AFTERNOON SFC-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER WITH
COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DELMARVA PORTION OF OUTLOOK. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT THERE COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL GIVEN THE LOW LCL'S AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROFILES. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO EVALUATE TORNADO
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION IN THIS
AREA.
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:08 pm
by Stormsfury
That's the problem, yoda... there's too much uncertainty to tell if there will be a significant tornado threat ... part of the problem is that the ULL and the surface low are expected to become vertically stacked and the uncertainty of the new low expected to develop in the Mid-Atlantic.
SF
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:24 pm
by yoda
Could you explain what you just posted? I don't quite understand..
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:27 pm
by Brent
yoda wrote:Could you explain what you just posted? I don't quite understand..
It basically means they don't know if there will be a significant risk. LOL, there is a threat though.
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:31 pm
by yoda
If there is a sig risk, they would update to a moderate risk I believe in the SPC 1730 outlook... but I just want to see a tornado tomorrow!
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:34 pm
by Stormsfury
It's VERY rare that a moderate risk would go up in the Mid-Atlantic or even anywhere in the East 24 hours in advance under even more certain conditions, let alone the uncertain variables right now ... plus your threat isn't until tomorrow and not imminent. SPC will be highly concentrating on the outbreak getting ready to explode back in AR/MO/IL today ...
SF
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:36 pm
by yoda
OK thanks. I will be watching the areas to my west today anyway..
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:46 pm
by Skywatch_NC
Matt, it looks like your area is about right on a 25%-15% boundary for tomorrow!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 00_any.gif
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 12:59 pm
by yoda
I live south of D.C., so I am in the 25% area.. I am guessing you are just outside the 25% area?
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 1:05 pm
by Skywatch_NC
yoda wrote:I live south of D.C., so I am in the 25% area.. I am guessing you are just outside the 25% area?
Either that...or just on a 25%-15% boundary...will be interesting to see what they have for us in later updates.
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 1:07 pm
by yoda
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 1:20 pm
by Skywatch_NC
Thank you, Matt...yep, I'm now in the 15% area...you're 25%...will have to have our holiday picnics indoors, Wxbuddy!
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 2:40 pm
by WXBUFFJIM
That's still a significant threat this far east. 15-25% probability is still significant enough for a slight risk and folks any storm that is severe is dangerous.
A severe storm is classified when the following occur
Thunderstorm wind gust 58 mph or greater
hail 3/4 inch in diameter or larger
tornadoes
All three possibilities exists tomorrow, but I'm leaning more towards damaging gusts!!
Jim
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 9:49 pm
by Anonymous
yoda wrote:I live south of D.C., so I am in the 25% area.. I am guessing you are just outside the 25% area?
I am scared to death of tornadoes. I want lots of rain, like about 4 to 8 inches of rain, but I DO NOT want a tornado.
-Jeb (already quaking in his boots lol)
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 9:50 pm
by wx247
You mean you don't take Jebwalks in tornadoes??
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 9:53 pm
by Skywatch_NC
wx247 wrote:You mean you don't take Jebwalks in tornadoes??
Blasting music courtesy of "Freight Train Studios"...
Posted: Sun May 30, 2004 10:08 pm
by Anonymous
Jeb wrote:yoda wrote:I live south of D.C., so I am in the 25% area.. I am guessing you are just outside the 25% area?
I am scared to death of tornadoes. I want lots of rain, like about 4 to 8 inches of rain, but I DO NOT want a tornado.
-Jeb (already quaking in his boots lol)
Don't BRING IT to Jeb weather gods.
