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Everybody BUT ME got rain :(
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 4:37 pm
by Josephine96
Well.. slowly but surely we here in Central Florida may have begun relieving our drought today. But for the past 2 days.. everybody BUT ME has apparently got rain..
I'm a little ticked off right now.. I was so psyched because earlier today I saw what appeared to be thunderstorms by Disney {which is only about 15-20 mins. from where I am..}
and they never came this way!
I hope we get some rain soon.. We have plenty of dark skies, but they haven't opened up all afternoon
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 5:26 pm
by Yankeegirl
Just to make you feel better, we didnt get any rain today either... and it looked like it could have!! I was already for it!! BUMMER!
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 5:33 pm
by chadtm80
None here either.. Your not alone

but we are moving in the right direction

Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 6:00 pm
by Rainband
Hopefully we get some soon

Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 6:52 pm
by USAwx1
Most areas across the peninsula will have a good shot tomorrow at additional rainfall and thunderstorms, a few of which COULD be severe.
Surface heating combined with boundary layer dew points of >68F by 21z over much of the state, which will contribute to strong Surface based instability w/ SB CAPE values of over 2000 J/kg by later in the day (see 18z MesoETA sounding at JAX Valid 21z tomorrow) and little CIN.
Convective initiation will take place due to low level convergence along the sea breeze boundaries during the early afternoon hours, and then begin to decrease in coverage and intensity w/ loss of diurnal heating during the late evening hours as the surface stabilizes.
The greater that for organized SVR will be up across the Carolinas and GA, as potent mid level s/w approaches the region combined w/ good upper divergence courtesy of the favorable jet structure/placement over the region.
Furthermore, deep layer shear, and mid level lapse rates are WEAKER over FL than they are further north which may further limit organization.
Will be another warm day as 850H temps hover around 16 C and Low level thicknesses remain in the 1425m range. HOWEVER, cloud cover and developing convection may prevent things from getting VERY hot.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 7:11 pm
by Josephine96
We are still cloudy.. I thought I may have even heard thunder in church.. But no rain..

Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 7:11 pm
by USAwx1
Also, I forgot to mention that PW's (precipitable water) is running 1.60-2.00" across much of florida, thus thunderstorms will be able to produce ALOT of rain in a SHORT period of time. This along w/ the relatively dry ground across the state due to the recent lack of rain, will lead to somewhat of a flash flooding threat due to runoff.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 7:20 pm
by USAwx1
Josephine96 wrote:We are still cloudy.. I thought I may have even heard thunder in church.. But no rain..

Yeah, theres not too much going on in/around the orlando area right now. most of the heaviest convection is up toward Volusia county, and the Daytona area. There's another area of rain between Ft. pierce and MLB.
the convection really isnt moving all the quickly so heavy rainfall is going to be a big concern.
1hr precip totals in the daytona area associated with that stronger cell that i was just talking about are almost 2.00", with generally a 1/2 inch to 1.75" totals up toward gainsville.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 7:28 pm
by chadtm80
North and south of me.. lol DANG IT!!!
Amanzi you getting any??
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 7:30 pm
by chadtm80
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:22 pm
by Josephine96
Same here.. north and south
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:34 pm
by USAwx1
chad, your storms will be approaching you from the north pretty soon (just on the Northern doorstep of I-4), and John, yours are off to the west, so it looks like everyone will get some rain afterall.
That area of convection has been producing 1-2" per hour rainfall totals over Flagler and Northern Volusia counties.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:34 pm
by chadtm80
Whats that I hear out my window?? Well I'll be.. I do believe I hear me some rain!!!! Wooo Hooo.. l ol
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:37 pm
by Josephine96
LOL Not me yet..
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:40 pm
by chadtm80
I just spoke to an old buddy of storm2k's.. Good old Ken aka wishcast. He is up in the Daytona area.. and he has picked up 1.15 " so far.. And still moderately raining.. This is very good news for Florida

Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:42 pm
by breeze
*fingers crossed....praying.....
GO, John! GO, John! GO, John!

Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:43 pm
by chadtm80
5 min later and I no longer even hear the pitter patter here..

lol Hope tommorow brings us some. Its been over a month since we have got any rain here.. It is MUCH needed by many
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 8:57 pm
by USAwx1
chadtm80 wrote:5 min later and I no longer even hear the pitter patter here..

lol Hope tommorow brings us some. Its been over a month since we have got any rain here.. It is MUCH needed by many
Tomorrow should bring more of the same as convection develops along the sea breeze boundaries. PW will be in the 1.6"-2" range, and storm motion (per 21z JAX sounding) is around 15 KT which would be favorable for heavy rainfall.
850H dewpoints (AOA 10 DEG C) and K indices in the 30s would just add to the heavy rainfall threat.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 9:23 pm
by Josephine96
Sorry Breeze.. I'm about to step outside and check.. but it appears I'm still dry..
Local met just said severe weather is possible tomorrow.. Maybe we'll get some rain then
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 9:25 pm
by Josephine96
This may be a huge break for me.. I hope I'm still awake and actually see it if it happens lol..
SHORT TERM FORECAST
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2004
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
030250-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
955 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2004
.NOW...
AT 950 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM SANFORD TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THROUGH 11 PM...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM CLERMONT TO TITUSVILLE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND OSCEOLA
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ORLANDO AND KISSIMMEE.