STORM2K

The NWS is forecasting heavy rain for most of Southeast, Texas today. I know we are very moist and I do think the activity will be up just a bit from yesterday but still pretty scattered. I don't see 3 inch totals out of these pop up storms today. What do y'all think? Read below.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
TODAY.

I don't know what to think. After warning people here at work to bring a boat with them on Tuesday, and then not seeing even a drop, I'm wondering if we'll see much else down here. Last night was the first shower we had all week (aside from a small sprinkle on Monday) on the island. Everyone west, north, and east got the "big" rain that was forecast to hit.

I know what you mean, GD...

And I saw that they upped our pops to 50%, but the discussion and forecast doesn't sound as ominous as the hazardous weather outlook. I'm not sure what to think. At this point, we do only have our usual 30% chance of afternoon summer thunderstorms tomorrow.

-gina-

What is, if it happens, going to cause the possible heavy rains is the continuing feed from the South and an disturbance coming in from the West that will "collide" with this very moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere and cause the rains/storms later today. Basically it is a matter of timing, as with almost all weather systems, meaning if the SW arrives during the heat of the day when there is still plenty of energy to set things off then it could happen. If it comes in the middle of the night when it is cooler, it could be less of a problem. If it tracks furrther North than currently progged, it might not affect the more Southern areas. Lots to think about, but it is a definite possibility.

Radar is showing some scattered showers and thunderstorms just West of the Houston metro area and very isolated elsewhere. I don't see this kind of rain materializing at all, unless daytime heating gets things really cranking around the 3 p.m. mark.

At this point I have to agree. Checking statewide radars reveals nothing coming across that would set this off or accelerate it past the popups we are currently having. Don't even see an obvious sea breeze setting up yet either. I could be wrong, but that is what I see ATTM. Coverage has increased some, but is still generally sparse. That is fine with me since I am heading to Johnson City when I leave work today(hopefully early) and don't particularly enjoy driving in the rain.

Its been sunny all day!!! There is no way its going to rain out....