STORM2K

Latest discussion doesn't sound very fun...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW...MAINLY WEST OF I-45. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS AND ON INTO THIS EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION...DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS AND HIGH INSTABILITIES MAY LEAD TOWARD SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FUTURE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WHICH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS MOVE THIS LOW BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOWARD NORTH TEXAS AND ELONGATE IT. IF THE LOW ENDS UP TO OUR WEST...WE COULD SEE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST INFLOW OFF THE GULF TAPS SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AGAIN...EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWER POPS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.
42/43
&&

Well thats just great.. more rain!! Thats ok... I just planed a new flower bed, and some rain will do it good... Supposed to rain tomorrow?? We got no rain here today...

Wow, you didn't get anything? It rained over Pearland most of the day, from what I heard.. it only rained at work (downtown Houston) for a bit. But tomorrow we have a 70% chance. Bleh. My begonias need it, but the Gulf Fwy. is bad enough when it's sunny and dry out!!

This is part of the hazardous weather outlook issued at about 4pm:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS.

Nothing here yet. I'm beginning to think this is "Days Of Our Lives" and I'm in some alternative universe, living on an island made to look like Galveston, but not really Galveston.

Rain?? What's that?

GalvestonDuck wrote:Nothing here yet. I'm beginning to think this is "Days Of Our Lives" and I'm in some alternative universe, living on an island made to look like Galveston, but not really Galveston.

Quick way to tell:

Do you have an evil twin you just found out about? Did you marry your cousin accidentally? Did you just push your girlfriend over a cliff because you thought she was cheating on you, but HER evil twin had been parading as your girlfriend, and it turns out you just pushed the "real" one over the cliff, so you chase the evil one across a highway in a blind rage, and she gets hit by a semi, and as she lay dying in your arms you realize that she had been the "good" one all along?

*starts humming the Days of Our Lives theme*

Its been quite dry here with thunderstorms to the NE and N from Pearland N to Montgomery County over the last week

We are waking up to heavy rain and flooding inthe Northern and Northeast sections of the Houston Metro area. Some areas have already recieved 4" of rain this am. This whole area is slowly drifting Southwest and will eventually cover the entire metro area. An urban and small stream flood advisory is already in effect for the Northern areas of Harris County and Montgomery County. Rainfall rates in some of these storms is 2"-3" per hour and these are slow moving. Some small hail has been reported with some fo these storms also. I expect that this will spread all over our area as the morning continues. As the Upper level low that is sitting over us slides SW along the coast today this should move with it and hopefully the rains will be gone by tomorrow.

Well I just got my son off to summer school and it nice and dark outside(good sleepin weather) Its starting to lightening and thunder here, the ground is wet, so I guess it rained overnight, but not much.. Looks to me, from the doppler thats its all to my north.. I think we are gonig to get wet today, unlike yesterday!

I watch Days too... what a goofy story line now.. Im just happy that Jack is coming back! I was sad when he left!! I havent watched it in a few days, but I think today is going to be a perfect day to curl up on the couch and be entertained!

Lisa

crazy4disney wrote:

GalvestonDuck wrote:Nothing here yet. I'm beginning to think this is "Days Of Our Lives" and I'm in some alternative universe, living on an island made to look like Galveston, but not really Galveston.

Quick way to tell:

Do you have an evil twin you just found out about? Did you marry your cousin accidentally? Did you just push your girlfriend over a cliff because you thought she was cheating on you, but HER evil twin had been parading as your girlfriend, and it turns out you just pushed the "real" one over the cliff, so you chase the evil one across a highway in a blind rage, and she gets hit by a semi, and as she lay dying in your arms you realize that she had been the "good" one all along?

*starts humming the Days of Our Lives theme*

LOL!!


Special marine advisory for my end of the island. Guess I should run and look out the window or I might miss it.

WHUS54 KHGX 151341
SMWHOU
GMZ335-355-151445-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT, TX OUT 20 NM
GALVESTON BAY

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 831 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35
KNOTS...OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GALVESTON BAY AND ALONG THE
BOLIVAR PENISULA AND GALVESTON ISALND. THE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 10 NM BY 930
AM.

PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2910 9514 2903 9493 2954 9440 2954 9491

$$



WWWW

Sounds like it's going to be pretty hard for it to miss you this time, GD!

They just issued a flood watch for pretty much all of SE Texas, all the way through tomorrow morning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 7OO AM CDT WED MORNING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES.

IN SE TX.

AUSTIN.BRAZORIA.BRAZOS.BURLESON.CHAMBERS.CO.FORT
BEND.GALVESTON.GRIMES.HARRIS.HOUSTON.JACKSON.LIBERTY.
MADISON.MATAGORDA.MONTGOMERY.POLK.SAN JACINTO.TRINITY.
WALKER.WALLER.WA & WHARTON.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SE TX.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SE TX HAS BECOME A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG & EAST OF I-45. HEAVY RAINS FALLING IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE WEST & THE SOUTHWEST.ROUGHLY WEST OF I-45 AND SO. OF I-10.THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS OR WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS.

We've had a little bit of thunder hear and a few spritzs but that's it. Still keeping an eye to the radar and the sky. Thanks David for the heads up for possible spotter activation.

Was supposed to be really wet here today, 70% chance and all but of course it has been shaved back to 40%. Not much on the radar yet but it's still early. Can't say we really need the rain but it's still nice to see some good ole' summer thunderstorms.

We continue to get rain throughout the Metro area on and off. As is obvious by this loop, the ULL is still sitting right on top of us and spinning up more and more rain.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... khgx.shtml

As the heating of the day takes effect I wouldn't be surprised by some very heavy local rains with the accompanying localized flooding. We are under a FFwatch till tomorrow.

The show started at 4 this morning up at my house between Conroe and Montgomery. It was a fun drive into work on the North side of Houston. We just got through with a big thunderstorm here off of I-45N and the Beltway.

That doppler looks funky... Like there is an "eye" over Houston! Ive never seen anything like that... Havent had too much rain here on the west side of town yet... some thunder every now and then... I hear is going to get worse later on this afternoon... Good luck and everyone stay safe!!




Lisa

Yeah PT....70% yesterday and today. ooooooook
I AM storm repellant after all.
Storms to my north, my south, my west and my east. Sunshine here and for the 2nd week in a row, they predicted heavy rain for several days here and nada.
*plays PFR Pray for Rain*

That radar does look really creepy...

Johnny, you must have had it really bad up there! A co-worker here lives in the Woodlands, and he said he and his wife kept getting woken up because the thunder was just so loud. And he said the same thing about the drive in to downtown here... hope you have an easier time getting home!

-gina-

southerngale wrote:Yeah PT....70% yesterday and today. ooooooook
I AM storm repellant after all.
Storms to my north, my south, my west and my east. Sunshine here and for the 2nd week in a row, they predicted heavy rain for several days here and nada.
*plays PFR Pray for Rain*

Grrrr, there's hardly anything out there right now in south LA. Is it just me or has the NWS (specifically Lake Charles) been way over zealous with their forecasts for a couple of weeks now? Heck, we had more rain this past weekend with only 20 and 30 percent chances .

Although now that I'm looking at the radar, I do see an eastward moving outflow boundary that just passed through Lake Charles, maybe that will provide a focus for my area this afternoon. I want some fireworks

You're right about Lake Charles NWS lately. And yes, we had a few good thunderstorms that knocked down some tree limbs Sunday night when we had a slim chance of rain. I guess I should look forward to our rain chances dropping so we have a chance for some real storms.

We are about to get slammed again... I was just outside and the wind is picking up and its got a nice cool feel to the gusts... feels great outside!!