STORM2K

Indication of a very upper level low moving across W GOM into SE TX during the weekend. It will interesting to see the Houston-Galveston AFD later today.

VERY WEAK UPR LVL LOW FORECASTED TO MOVE NW OUT OF BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO JUST SOUTH OF BRO FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT. SAT
AFTERNOON PWS PROGGED TO INCREASE BACK TO 1.8-1.9" ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. LOW ISOL POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR
POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NE
COUNTIES. WEAK UPR LVL LOW SHOWN TO LIFT SLOWLY NNE THRU THE NW GULF
OF MX...WITH S TX ON WRN SIDE. WILL KEEP SUN AND MON DRY. LONG RANGE
GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE TUE INTO WED AND S/W TROF
MOVING ACROSS TX ON WED. FOR NOW WILL ONLY INSERT ISOL POPS INTO
FORECAST FOR DAY SEVEN.

Looks like SE Texas will actually get a chance to dry out this weekend and also warm up. Looks like sometime next week we could experience elevated rain chances once again along the gulf coast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN COOLED AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS
STABILIZED THINGS AND A NICE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
BUT EVEN THESE STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE WEST OF THE CWA BY 4 PM.
WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AT 4 PM UPON ISSUING NEW SET OF ZONES.

WILL RAISE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK 70H CONVERGENT ZONE
APPROACHES AND PW'S REMAIN AOA 1.8 INCHES. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK 25H
RRQ. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S WHICH ARE
REACHABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. 500 HEIGHTS
BUILD TO 594 DM SO EXPECT QUITE A WARMING/DRYING TREND. KEPT 20 POPS
GOING FOR NOW BUT THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER SLIM. STAYS
RATHER QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE 50H RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN. 43/46

CWA *repeats to self* county warning area, country warning area, county warning area

Why can't I retain that in my memory? It's like reading music -- it just won't stay in my brain. I had to go look that up again. I'm sure I asked you guys once before last year what it stood for.

*pounds it into skull*

I jumped the gun on that one.

KatDaddy wrote:I jumped the gun on that one.

Just like our NWS has been doing lately , but we actually have gotten a decent rain today. Looks like a 40% chance tomorrow and then 20% over the weekend with chances rising as we head into next week. Hey it's summer it can rain just about any day for the next 3 months.