STORM2K

The last 2 days have been relatively dry across central and south Florida thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure near South Carolina. It has been oriented from NE to SW and has provided a relatively dry NE flow at most levels (the exception is the surface winds) over much of the peninsula. The upper ridge is now tracking to the southwest and will continue to provide the dry air aloft, but the low and mid levels will juice up in the wake of a weak tropical wave that is currently crossing south Florida. This will turn the low level flow to the east and southeast and tropical moisture will increase across the central and southern counties resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms. As the tropical wave crossed the northern Bahamas on Thursday it enhanced the northeast flow and dry air ahead of it so not much happened, but expect and increase in moisture and showers later Thursday night and Friday.

Smerby
http://www.accuweather.com

Your absolutley right smerby (as if your not always right) The flow has been keeping us realy dry.. Local mets here are not realy raising the percentages untill saturday and realy Sunday

this is the driest June I can remember in 20 years in SE FLA

I am in a dry bubble!! Even when FL got that dousing earlier on in the week, my little part of the sunshine state got zilcho!!!! My poor grass looks awful. We have been put onto water restrictions *sigh* I just hope we get some afternoon thunderstorms to dampen the ground a bit... its just horrible here. From Saturday night we have a 50% chance according to the JAX NWS. I just hope I dont miss out.... AGAIN!

Thanks for the info smerby.

Amanzi wrote:I am in a dry bubble!! Even when FL got that dousing earlier on in the week, my little part of the sunshine state got zilcho!!!! My poor grass looks awful. We have been put onto water restrictions *sigh* I just hope we get some afternoon thunderstorms to dampen the ground a bit... its just horrible here. From Saturday night we have a 50% chance according to the JAX NWS. I just hope I dont miss out.... AGAIN!

Thanks for the info smerby.

I definitely agree Amanzi. If it makes you feel any better, we had a well put in back in April.

Sunday does look promising though. The 12z GFS ensembles were pretty confident on bringing the cold front pretty close the Florida/Georgia border on Sunday, which would imply a good chance of widespread thunderstorms from late morning on. The 12z ETA even develops a weak wave along the front.

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_ETA_1000- ... K_54HR.gif

Instability will be very good, as Surface-based CAPE climbs to over 2500 J/kg over much of the state, south of the front and PW (precipitable water) values around 2.00 Inches. So thunderstorms will produce alot of rain. The good news though is that deep-layer shear is weak, 500mb temps are warm and Mid level lapse rates are pretty weak, which would mean that severe weather will not be a problem. And nice discussion Smerby!

Oh, and if I might add, the potential for thunderstorms on Sunday will increase the further south you go, so, areas like Flagler, Seminole, Volusia, St. Johns and Marion countes may see the best chance for some good rains.

Rain chances for both Saturday and Sunday are 50% for northern Lake county and 40% for Sumter.
Marion county's chances is at 50% for Saturday and 60% for Sunday.

All three area forecasts (from the National Weather Service offices in Melbourne, Ruskin [Tampa Bay
Area] and Jacksonville, respectively were actually issued at 9:00 pm.

As of now, these forecast changes issued at 4:00 AM:

Marion:

                           Today: 40%
Tonight (early evening): 40%
                     Tomorrow: 40%

Northern Lake:

                           Today: 40%
Tonight (early evening): 40%
                     Tomorrow: 50%

Sumter: {interestingly, northern Sumter have the higher chances; while points south and west have the lower chances}

                           Today: 30% (coastal- 20%)
Tonight (early evening): 30% (coastal- 20%)
                     Tomorrow: 30% (coastal- 20%)

LOL elw, we have a well for irrigation, but it must have been put in during the 1800's The blasted thing has no pressure and I think I can water the garden faster with a beer can

000
FXUS62 KJAX 191408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SE GA AND RIDGE ACROSS S FL. 12Z JAX SOUNDING
SHOWING THE PW HAS INCREASED TO 2.2 INCHES. MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPE OF 3200J AND LI OF -6. BOTH FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
IS RELATIVELY HIGH (AROUND 15 THOUSAND FT). SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL ALSO PROBABLY GET A FAIRLY GOOD SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE
EAST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN FL WHERE THE GRADIENT
IS WEAKEST. THIS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES...THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (GIVEN THE
HIGH CAPE AND PW). MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S MOST LOCALES EXCEPT
NEAR 90 ALONG FL EAST COAST AS SEA BREEZE FORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

PP/SC/RK


According to the above discussion the east coast may see some action this afternoon. *Amanzi crosses fingers...toes and other crossable body
parts and begins to resemble a contortionist*

Great discussion guys

LOL elw, we have a well for irrigation, but it must have been put in during the 1800's The blasted thing has no pressure and I think I can water the garden faster with a beer can

My parents just had a house built and a well just put in in the process. And they dont get CHIT for pressure. Its realy bad!! I hope we get some today as well Amanzi.. Ill be fine with getting some tommorow too. Just try to hold it off until 1. Tommorow is my Fathers Day Golfing

chadtm80 wrote:

LOL elw, we have a well for irrigation, but it must have been put in during the 1800's The blasted thing has no pressure and I think I can water the garden faster with a beer can

My parents just had a house built and a well just put in in the process. And they dont get CHIT for pressure. Its realy bad!! I hope we get some today as well Amanzi.. Ill be fine with getting some tommorow too. Just try to hold it off until 1. Tommorow is my Fathers Day Golfing

Fathers are entitled to have their cake and eat it to on Father's day weekend, just like the Mom's on theirs.

Good to see you all getting some rain down there! I sure don't need any more... "Mom, where's the snorkel?" LOL!

Amanzi wrote:LOL elw, we have a well for irrigation, but it must have been put in during the 1800's The blasted thing has no pressure and I think I can water the garden faster with a beer can

000
FXUS62 KJAX 191408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SE GA AND RIDGE ACROSS S FL. 12Z JAX SOUNDING
SHOWING THE PW HAS INCREASED TO 2.2 INCHES. MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPE OF 3200J AND LI OF -6. BOTH FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
IS RELATIVELY HIGH (AROUND 15 THOUSAND FT). SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL ALSO PROBABLY GET A FAIRLY GOOD SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE
EAST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN FL WHERE THE GRADIENT
IS WEAKEST. THIS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES...THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING (GIVEN THE
HIGH CAPE AND PW). MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S MOST LOCALES EXCEPT
NEAR 90 ALONG FL EAST COAST AS SEA BREEZE FORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

PP/SC/RK


According to the above discussion the east coast may see some action this afternoon. *Amanzi crosses fingers...toes and other crossable body
parts and begins to resemble a contortionist*

Great discussion guys

That's what we had it put in for was to keep the lawn presentable.

It's still early yet, however for the time being it seems as if everything is off to the North And west of you.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS ... latest.gif

it would appear as if instability and moisture is verifying better than what Yesterday's 12z ETA had suggested.

Dewpoints are in the Low 70s, and Surface temps Above 90*F in most places, so it's no wonder instability/CAPE is above 3000 J/kg.

http://128.121.203.158/SFC_SOUTHEAST.gif

Good news though is that severe weather isn't going to be a big problem. Notice the belt of 45-60 KT lowest 6 KM shear

http://198.63.55.43/CONUS_RUC236_BNDLYR ... R_00HR.gif

is associated with the stronger mid and upper-level jet across the northern half of the country. This should keep severe weather out of the question aside from maybe an isolated severe cell or two.

http://198.63.55.43/OFFHR_CONUS_GFS_250 ... D_00HR.gif

Been getting lots of off/on showers thunderstorms here.... Was at a pool party--had to be moved indoors due to lightning.

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Been getting lots of off/on showers thunderstorms here.... Was at a pool party--had to be moved indoors due to lightning.

That's all they really are, just slow-moving lightning and heavy rain producers.

Had a lot of thunder here in the last hour or two. Fainter rumbles now, if any. The cell(s) were to my northwest.

Before the loudest rumbles stopped there were some large raindrops that last a few minutes.

Big cell west of me moving east along I10---hearing constant thunder off at a distance.. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kjax.shtml

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Big cell west of me moving east along I10---hearing constant thunder off at a distance.. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kjax.shtml

Code: Select all

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
507 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR BAKER COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM. AT 508 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SANDERSON...OR 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 530 PM EDT...
OLUSTEE...
SANDERSON...
GLEN ST. MARY AND MACCLENNY...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A PENNY...
WINDS UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER.



This is more the exception rather than the rule, a pulse-type severe thunderstorm. I also have a hard time seeing how with freezing and wetbulb zero heights up there, how these will be hail producers.

Still a severe thunderstorm.

*PFFFTTTTTTTT* My theme song for this summer seems to be "from a distance" cause thats all I seem to hear, is distant storms oh woe is me.. Oh I'll shut up now

We got maybe a sprinkle for 3 minutes and thunder ....