STORM2K

Looks to be pretty wet for most of the week. Read below.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
210 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEK
IS IN STORE FOR SE TX. AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY. MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN AND WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS.

CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROF WILL
NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND
ALLOW WEAK TROFFING TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. LATEST GFS/ETA RUNS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX ON
TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT 2 INCH PWS INTO
THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE BIG SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING 250 MB DIFLUENCE
WITH PWS HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY
AID IN FOCUSING TSRA DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT/WED. HPC DAY 2 QPF
OUTLOOK SHOWS 0.5-1.0 INCH TOTALS OVER SE TX WHICH LOOK REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL STICK WITH 50 POPS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED
THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO UP POPS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT VS SEVERE WEATHER WITH WINDS ALOFT RATHER WEAK
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN.

GFS/UKMET RUNS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. WEAK CAPPING AND HIGH PW AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WENT WITH 50 POPS THU/FRI. OVER
THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER SE
TX SO WILL KEEP ONGOING TREND OF LOWER POPS WITH TIME.

TEMPS STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND BUT SHOULD REBOUND BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

Now they are talking about issueing a flood watch per future model runs. All is a go for a very heavy rain even starting Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Read below.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCT ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF SE TX...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS EXIST. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DEVELOP FURTHER N/NW THIS AFT/EVE AS HEATING CONTINUES. AM WATCHING
THE LINE OF STORMS OVER NORTH TX TO SEE IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF SE TX. MAY BUMP POPS A
LITTLE OVER THE NE ZONES (INTO THE CHC RANGE) IF I THINK THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SAG SE INTO THE AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE CHC OF RAIN AND THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE TUE AFT THROUGH WED NIGHT PERIOD. MY CONFIDENCE
IS GOING UP THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AND THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN CHC WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFT AS DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
AREA AND AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING VERY HIGH PW VALUES...WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2 INCH PW IS PROBABLE WHICH IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE
INFLOW INTO THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WILL TREND POPS UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE N AND W ZONES BY TUE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LIKELY
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WED AS THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL. WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SE BEFORE IT STALLS. FOR THIS PACKAGE
WILL RAISE POPS AND DECREASE HIGH TEMPS ON TUE AND WED. WILL ALSO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING ON TUE AFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EXPAND THIS THREAT TUE NIGHT AND WED
TO COVER ALL OF SE TX. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONSIDER A
FLOOD WATCH FOR SE TX. THIS DECISION CAN WAIT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL AID ON FIGURING OUT THE FUTURE
POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AT SOME POINT IN OR
NEAR SE TX.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. EVEN THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SE TX INTO THE WEEKEND
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

Looks like a wet week here as well as we've already had some pretty robust storms today with lots of lightning and 50%-70% rain chances until the weekend. Wednesday looks like it will be the wettest day as a front stalls nearby.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Icky all along the GOM coast from TX/LA to FL. But FL needs it further south.

Yeah.. I heard that we were gonna get wet this week... I made sure to run my errands today, before it rains... We havent got any rain yet today...

Had a little over an inch here this afternoon-in about 30 minutes.

Not to hijack this thread, but Suzi, where did you get your spotter avatar?? I want one! The spotter sticker on my car was apparently allergic to sunlight and/or rain, and disintegrated a long time ago... I miss seeing the logo.

-gina-

I think I got it from the skywarn site. In their store are stickers, decals etc. and one of them I was able to click on and send to Marshall or Chad who made it my avatar.

Northern Texas just got done with some strong storms from last night. Its suppost to rain all week for Texas and along the Gulf Coast. Alot of tourists here in Destin and Fort Walton Beach are getting pissed off ( and most of them are freom Texas ).

Thanks Suzi, I'll check that out.

And once again, the discussion is calling for waders at the ready... we're under a flood watch again:

...HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.UPDATE...
WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 70S FOR INLAND ZONES TODAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE THE FFAHGX STATEMENT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN. COLD FRONT NOW OVER TX PANHANDLE HAS STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT AND SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT MCS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING SE TX OVERNIGHT. 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH PWS REACHING 2+ INCHES. ETA FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO CAPPING...CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND K-INDICES IN THE MID 30S. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS TSRAS OVER SE TX THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
ACTING TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES CONVERGE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. DECIDED TO POST AN FFA FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SE TX THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...THIS WILL PROVIDE A HEADS UP ON THE SITUATION. DAY SHIFT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND FFA TO INCLUDE COASTAL COUNTIES. HPC DAY 1 QPF OUTLOOK LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS INLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTN...AND FOR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...BEST MOISTURE AXIS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER DIFLUENCE REMAIN FOCUSED OVER SE TX...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES.

WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z WED. MUST EMPHASIZE THESE AMOUNTS COVER ONLY THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WED/WED NIGHT. THE EVENT WILL BE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING SE TX ON THURSDAY. THIS IS NOT SHOWN IN THE OTHER MODELS AT THIS POINT. HIGHEST PWS AND BEST CONVERGENCE SHIFT TO THE SRN ZONES THURSDAY SO WILL GO LIKELY POPS
THERE...50 POPS TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN ZONES UNTIL MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

crazy4disney wrote:Not to hijack this thread, but Suzi, where did you get your spotter avatar?? I want one! The spotter sticker on my car was apparently allergic to sunlight and/or rain, and disintegrated a long time ago... I miss seeing the logo.

-gina-

That is the same thing that has happened to my skywarn sticker. I have another I am getting ready to replace it with.

Heavy rains are moving in from the West of Houston about 100 miles out right now. With disturbances comeing in from the West and a front coming in from the North some of us may end up with up to 5" of rain in the next 36 hours. Currently a FFWatch is in effect for the inland counties of SE TX.

Here is the radar:

I'm heading out to my mom's who lives off of Dairy Ashford and Memorial so looks like I'll be driving right into it around 9:45. Should be interesting, must take my camera!

Im on the west side, near Katy, and I havent seen any rain here as of yet... Its just about 7:45... Nice and sunny here, for now!! You all keep safe and stay dry!!

Drive safe, Suzi!

Jeez, this line of storms coming in looks like a boomerang... it is really starting to bow out.

I wish I could post the image in my post, but I'm not cool like vbhoutex... This is the one I'm looking at, though:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=ustxct19909&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RegionalRadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none

ABC13 acted like Galveston wasn't going to get any of this. I can't tell. It looks as if it is sweeping away from the coast.

Here is another closer in radar image.

Well the first wave of the storms moved through just a few minutes ago.. Got really dark, and the rain came down in sheets... some lightening and thunder... The power went out for about 5 minutes... The whole line didnt last too long, but it had a good punch.. It moved through here about 11:30 or so...

Anybody getting it yet?

There are flood warning for most all of SE TX except for the coastal areas. Looks to me like Friendswood and League City might get the southernmost severe stuff, but from Texas City on down to Galveston, we'll just get rain and a few minor storms, but nothing as heavy as you guys up in Harris County (in my amateur opinion).

Thunder and lots of scud. Very dark. Dead still, not even the birds are peeping. Not a drop of rain yet though.

Edit-POURING now, just what, 1 minute later?