STORM2K

We may be in for some significant rains again today in the SE TX/SW LA regions as an ULL slides slowly SW just off the coast. The turning of the system is eveident in th eradar loops and there is plenty of rain just offshore and/or moving onshore with this system. It is also beginning to fill in more in the offshore waters and as it moves SWerly all of that rain will be coming inot our areas as we get onto the wet side of the system. No watches or warnings of any sort yet.

I've been watching it most of the morning and yes, the spin is quite evident on radar loops. I know we might not need the rain but it looks like after this system clears our area, the upper level ridge will build back into our area and we will see the hottest temperatures of the year so far come next week. I say enjoy these soakers because the heat that Southeast, Texas in known for will soon be felt.

Man, this upper level low almost looks tropical.

Yeow.. a big ole slug a moisture coming in..

Johnny wrote:I've been watching it most of the morning and yes, the spin is quite evident on radar loops. I know we might not need the rain but it looks like after this system clears our area, the upper level ridge will build back into our area and we will see the hottest temperatures of the year so far come next week. I say enjoy these soakers because the heat that Southeast, Texas in known for will soon be felt.

Man, this upper level low almost looks tropical.

You got that right!! Not looking forward to the "warmer" temps!!!

Though there is nothing to suggest this system could reach the surface and generate into something, I always keep a close eye on them this time of year.

Looks like most of that rain continues to stay offshore. We had light rain this morning but now just cloudy skies and the sun looks like it's trying to break through. We could see some heavy convection develop with daytime heating like we saw yesterday.

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like most of that rain continues to stay offshore. We had light rain this morning but now just cloudy skies and the sun looks like it's trying to break through. We could see some heavy convection develop with daytime heating like we saw yesterday.

.......and the day before and the day before and the day before

I can't tell where it's coming from and which way it's going.

Wow... quite a change in this discussion!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
THE MESO-SCALE HAS REALLY TAKEN OVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...AND OFF THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SUBSIDENCE HAS REALLY SUPPRESSED ANY CONVECTION. WILL DRASTICALLY REVAMP THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR POPS AND WINDS.

crazy4disney wrote:Wow... quite a change in this discussion!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
THE MESO-SCALE HAS REALLY TAKEN OVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...AND OFF THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SUBSIDENCE HAS REALLY SUPPRESSED ANY CONVECTION. WILL DRASTICALLY REVAMP THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR POPS AND WINDS.

Not sure I am looking forward to that new forecast, but I think he may be lowering, instead of raising. I'll check in a while and see if that is the case.

Definitely lowered... now just "mostly cloudy, with scattered showers" for this afternoon.

Big bust for today's forecast. All of Harris County has been dry all day long. I might see a shower at my house in central Montgomery County later on this evening. Nothing to write home to mom about. I hope I get a good soaker between now and Sunday before the heat sets in.

It has rained almost non-stop here since 8:00. Of course, it's only been sprinkles during that whole time. I heard thunder and saw lightning before my alarm went off at 6:30 but nothing heavy ever hit down here.

The forecast has been revamped. POPS have been lowered significantly today and tomorrow and raised for Saturday night and into Sunday. Read below.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SE TX
WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
MAY DO WELL WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES. YET...AS TODAY PROVED...THE
MESO-SCALE EVENTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DETERMINE THE DAY-TO-DAY
RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE
POPS AND COVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURE NEXT IN LINE.

THE ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BEING AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE ETA IS DRIER AND KEEPS THE
WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE YUCATAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL (PROBABLY) BE LESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT THEN A BRIEF BREAK AGAIN SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

WILL LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WILL THEN GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET GUIDANCE THROUGH
MONDAY AND THE GFS GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

GalvestonDuck wrote:

I can't tell where it's coming from and which way it's going.

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SE TX
WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
MAY DO WELL WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES. YET...AS TODAY PROVED...THE
MESO-SCALE EVENTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DETERMINE THE DAY-TO-DAY
RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE
POPS AND COVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURE NEXT IN LINE.

Good, now I don't feel so stressed about not being able to figure out what I was seeing and what it was doing.

Not really expecting anymore rain for today and low end chances this weekend.


Area Forecast Discussion Versions [Latest][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5]



000
FXUS64 KLCH 091936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
236 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LCH-88D SHOWING ACADIANA
RAINS HAVE ENDED. SOME RAINS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EXTENDING INTO THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION JUST EAST OF CORPUS AT NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF LOW POSITIONED NEAR BROWNSVILLE. DENSE CLOUD COVER
MOVING INLAND HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
YET MET. SEEING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 80 ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
SOMEWHAT THINNER. EXPECTING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN RETROGRADING MID/UPPER TROF THAT EXTENDS
OVER WESTERN GULF AND EAST TEXAS WHILE FILLING WEAK LOW. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS INTO REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SHARPLY DRYER AIR COMING IN AT 500-700 MB. WILL BE
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
FCST AREA WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
SOME VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

&&

.EXTENDED...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EDGING WEST WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

Well it all stayed offshore except for the area that went North of the Houston Metro area and dumped up to 6" of rain in some areas. We really didin't need any more rain this week as we already are over our yearly total.

Tonight I begin watching the ULL moisture coming North off the Yucatan to see if it develops into another rain system for us tomorrow or Sunday.

From Hou/Gal discussion:
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD COVERAGE
DAY ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO REACH SE TX ON SUNDAY HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING AND DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.

We didnt get nay rain here... nada, nuttin, not a drop!! Maybe on Sunday...

We have already had a good soaking today with a line of thunderstorms that came up from the gulf. Not sure how much because of broken rain gauge but there's standing water in my perpetually water-logged backyard .

We got another good soaking, too!!!