Coastal Storm On Tap for End of Weekend
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:54 pm
If this were December, January, or February, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern snow geese might well be looking forward to the coming days with increasingly eager anticipation and honking with delight at each model run that even hints at reinforcing their wintry dreams.
They would look forward to the northward march of a gathering arc of clouds, with their slate gray shield lowering and thickening as the hours passed. They would relish the freshening northeast wind that would increasingly bite faces and cut hands with its chill. In time, the air would be filled with tiny, swirling flakes that would transform the landscape as only a wind-whipped snowstorm can. Life would truly be wonderful.
But this is not December, January, or February. So, residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states will have to settle for the possibility of an unusual July nor’easter (there remains some doubt as to its ultimate track so it is not yet fully certain that the coming storm will be a nor’easter or a “dreaded” inland runner).
As the coming weekend draws to a close, the Atlantic Ocean’s waters that are now playfully lapping at the beaches will take on an increasingly angry mood. Come Sunday night into Monday morning, the surf will likely be attacking beaches and lashing boardwalks. Sheets of rain could be drenching the region, parts of which remain saturated from the recent prodigious rains.
Should the storm track just offshore, it will encounter warm ocean waters (earlier runs of the European model consistently took it on an offshore track, but the latest run keeps it inland). There is some chance that these warm waters could help enhance the storm’s development and it might begin to acquire some subtropical characteristics.
Water temperatures include:
Buoy 44009 (Delaware Bay): 76.1°
Buoy 44014 (Virginia Beach): 80.2°
Buoy 41025 (Diamond Shoals): 82.9°
While there is some doubt as to whether the storm will take an offshore track or one that is somewhat inland—a dilemma that often tortures coastal snow geese in the winter—what is increasingly certain is that the storm will affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States.
Meanwhile, as the storm pounds the Atlantic shoreline, Houston will continue to bake in fiery tranquility. Under broiling sunshine, the thermometer will routinely climb into the middle 90s for many more days to come, perhaps into midweek next week.
But amidst these events, a larger drama is quietly beginning to unfold. If one takes a glance at the latest Atlantic Ocean SSTAs, one finds the classic negative NAO tripole: anomalously warm waters near Greenland, cool waters in the rest of the north Atlantic, and warm waters in the south Atlantic. At the same time, the overall pattern remains mildly but not overly progressive and both the El Nino indices and Pacific Decadal Oscillation have retreated to cooler readings in the past month.
What this means is that possibly within weeks, the sleeping lions of the Atlantic Ocean will begin to awaken from their hibernation. Then, the 2004 hurricane season could begin to heat up. Once that happens, the flirtatious waves that moved off the African coastline and the Caribbean disturbances that teased with their bursts of convection, but ultimately failed to move beyond their initial ability to seduce at first sight will be memories. The new storms will be far more serious. But that’s for a later day.
Right now, there’s plenty of near-term action ahead. An unusual coastal nor’easter could lash parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning late this weekend. Houston will continue to cook in its unique stew of heat and humidity spiced by the occasional thunderstorm. The Plains States will begin to warm anew.
They would look forward to the northward march of a gathering arc of clouds, with their slate gray shield lowering and thickening as the hours passed. They would relish the freshening northeast wind that would increasingly bite faces and cut hands with its chill. In time, the air would be filled with tiny, swirling flakes that would transform the landscape as only a wind-whipped snowstorm can. Life would truly be wonderful.
But this is not December, January, or February. So, residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states will have to settle for the possibility of an unusual July nor’easter (there remains some doubt as to its ultimate track so it is not yet fully certain that the coming storm will be a nor’easter or a “dreaded” inland runner).
As the coming weekend draws to a close, the Atlantic Ocean’s waters that are now playfully lapping at the beaches will take on an increasingly angry mood. Come Sunday night into Monday morning, the surf will likely be attacking beaches and lashing boardwalks. Sheets of rain could be drenching the region, parts of which remain saturated from the recent prodigious rains.
Should the storm track just offshore, it will encounter warm ocean waters (earlier runs of the European model consistently took it on an offshore track, but the latest run keeps it inland). There is some chance that these warm waters could help enhance the storm’s development and it might begin to acquire some subtropical characteristics.
Water temperatures include:
Buoy 44009 (Delaware Bay): 76.1°
Buoy 44014 (Virginia Beach): 80.2°
Buoy 41025 (Diamond Shoals): 82.9°
While there is some doubt as to whether the storm will take an offshore track or one that is somewhat inland—a dilemma that often tortures coastal snow geese in the winter—what is increasingly certain is that the storm will affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States.
Meanwhile, as the storm pounds the Atlantic shoreline, Houston will continue to bake in fiery tranquility. Under broiling sunshine, the thermometer will routinely climb into the middle 90s for many more days to come, perhaps into midweek next week.
But amidst these events, a larger drama is quietly beginning to unfold. If one takes a glance at the latest Atlantic Ocean SSTAs, one finds the classic negative NAO tripole: anomalously warm waters near Greenland, cool waters in the rest of the north Atlantic, and warm waters in the south Atlantic. At the same time, the overall pattern remains mildly but not overly progressive and both the El Nino indices and Pacific Decadal Oscillation have retreated to cooler readings in the past month.
What this means is that possibly within weeks, the sleeping lions of the Atlantic Ocean will begin to awaken from their hibernation. Then, the 2004 hurricane season could begin to heat up. Once that happens, the flirtatious waves that moved off the African coastline and the Caribbean disturbances that teased with their bursts of convection, but ultimately failed to move beyond their initial ability to seduce at first sight will be memories. The new storms will be far more serious. But that’s for a later day.
Right now, there’s plenty of near-term action ahead. An unusual coastal nor’easter could lash parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning late this weekend. Houston will continue to cook in its unique stew of heat and humidity spiced by the occasional thunderstorm. The Plains States will begin to warm anew.
