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"ROFLMAO!" Dis'n the MODELS!
Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2004 5:19 pm
by azsnowman
Check THIS OUT...someone at the NWS Office in FLAG doesn't quite BELIEVE the models "ROFLMAO!"
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH.
MODELS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IF THERE IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS DRYING
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A FIGMENT OF THE MODELS IMAGINATION. REALLY
CAN'T SEE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS COMING FROM VERY MOIST ORIGINS.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS DRY THINGS FURTHER NEXT WEEK BUT THIS
TOO SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING BY THE MODELS. CURRENT
GRIDS CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD
Dennis
Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2004 7:19 pm
by Josephine96
LOL I didn't know models had imaginations lol
Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2004 11:09 pm
by wx247
Yes, figments of them, too!
Thanks for sharing Dennis. I love it when the mets try to be funny in their discussions.
Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2004 11:12 pm
by Aslkahuna
Actually, models are nothing more than figments of the computer's imagination. Meanwhile, I don't know about Flagstaff but we are drying out big time down here.
Steve
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 7:34 am
by azsnowman
Um....no signs of a drying trend just yet, sitting here at 0536 with a DP of 59°, RH 92%....kinda MUGGY this morning. I received .56" yesterday with light *sprinkles* most of the afternoon, so light in fact, it didn't register in the gauge!
WILL BE WATCHING THAT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. ETA BUFR SOUNDING STILL KEEPS US MOIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PW'S AROUND THE 0.8 INCH MARK. SO EXPECT TO SEE A SIMILAR DAY
AS YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD...WITH THE H5 HIGH POSITIONING ITSELF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA...STILL FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FUEL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE STILL LINGERS AROUND...PUTTING US IN A LOW
GRADE MONSOON. THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING THIS. DF/CK
Dennis
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 9:16 am
by Stephanie
Well, I'm glad that some of you are getting rain in AZ. That was a funny forecast.
How's the fire situation Dennis?
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 1:46 pm
by azsnowman
WELL...it WAS OK BUT, it appears the DRYING trend is HERE *sigh*...they've opened the forests but with a WORD OF CAUTION, "Four days WITHOUT rain could mean the closures will take effect AGAIN!"
Dennis
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:15 pm
by azsnowman
WELL...it's a BUST-O-RAMA Day today
No signs of rain, RH is down to 32%, DP is 41°.....so far, this has been a LACK LUSTER, LOW GRADE NONSOON! WE NEED A GOOD tropical system blast up the Gulf Of Baja and make landfall!
Dennis
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:19 pm
by breeze
Dennis, I hope ya get the Monsoon! As for the
models, well, if they be dissin' 'ya, you'd better
call your Peeps, man!
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 8:45 pm
by Aslkahuna
We went the other way on the DP. Ours soared to 71F in the wake of a mild 2PM boomer and was followed by a nice storm to the SE. However, the dry air can be clearly seen to the east. A little moisture convergence ahead of the dryline-too bad we didn't have good shear and some decent
winds aloft for a goodtime monsoon action. But all in all it has been a lowgrade 'soon or dudsoon as I call it.
Steve
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2004 8:48 pm
by Rainband
Hope you guys get some rain soon!!!
Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 5:16 pm
by azsnowman
WELL, ANOTHER Bust-O-RAMA day *sigh*.....there's nuthin' I can do about it I guess 'cept sit and wait for the fall snows to hit!
Dennis
Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 8:18 pm
by Aslkahuna
Don't count on those Fall Snows either.
Steve