STORM2K

From Mt. Holly NWS...

AS A BIT OF A HEADS UP TO SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE CONSIDERING A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PART/ALL OF OUR AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER
MULLING OVER THE 12Z RUN.

WHY? Sure some thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, but no ridiculous amount of rain is forecast, and we have had about 3 days to dry out - so everything is dried out, creek/river levels have returned to normal. WHY could they even think about issuing a FFA?

Well, the surrounding areas to them include Medford, Medford Lakes, Tabernacle, Southampton, etc. - all of the areas that were devastated by the floods last week. that's about 20 miles to the south of Mt. Holly. Maybe that's what they are referring to.

Yes, but they said for part or all of the area.

And a flood watch has been issued...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
203 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2004

...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN PENNSYLVANIA...
DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BERKS...LEHIGH...
NORTHAMPTON...CARBON...BUCKS AND MONROE.

IN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX...WARREN...MORRIS...HUNTERDON...SOMERSET...CAPE MAY...
ATLANTIC...SALEM...CUMBERLAND...CAMDEN...OCEAN...GLOUCESTER...
WESTERN MONMOUTH...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON.

IN DELAWARE...
KENT...INLAND SUSSEX AND NEW CASTLE.

IN MARYLAND...
CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT...QUEEN ANNE'S AND TALBOT.


THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SET UP A MOIST, UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.

THE POCONO MOUNTAIN AREA, ALONG WITH BERKS AND CHESTER COUNTIES,
WILL SEE THE RAIN FIRST. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON IN THE
REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS. SOME WATERWAYS THAT ARE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN INCLUDE THE CHRISTINA RIVER, WHITE CLAY CREEK,
RED CLAY CREEK, BRANDYWINE CREEK, CHESTER CREEK, NESHAMINY CREEK,
ASSUNPINK CREEK, RANCOCAS CREEK AND THE COOPER RIVER.

IF YOU LIVE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING, PAY SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FORECAST AND TO OTHER WEATHER RELATED
INFORMATION UNTIL THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. REMEMBER, DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOOD WATERS AS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

$$

Looks like last Sunday all over again - but for two days.

I wish we could send this out west...

Stephanie wrote:Looks like last Sunday all over again - but for two days.

I wish we could send this out west...

No way, we are having a great summer! Although, the next 2-3 days will be atleast in the low-mid 90s, with some places even popping the 100 degree mark for the first time in year. It would help if we got some cooler air come to think of it, but not the rain.

The good.................




The BAD.........................




ETA likely way overdone! Atleast lets hope it is because the heaviest would be falling on top of the areas that were flooded badly!
To me the NWS is playing safe!

ETA is probably suffering convective feedback, but you never know. Personally I think GFS is usually better with rain amounts. Keep us updated on how much rain you all get within this next 48 hours and we can see which model was actually closer.

12hr FFG values are pretty low over parts of PHL's CWA. I suspect that in combo with the high QPF being printed out is the reason for the watch.


[img]//www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/ffg/Flash_Floo12hr.png[/img]

You know whats funny Colin......... how you posted over at wwbb complaining about how much rain there was going to be.....

Saying "this is NOT good, where did this come from"
Come on Colin, you also called it a stratiform heavy rain event....
Either way, it looks like a good shot of rain for the area tonight into early...... FFW is a good idea IMO

W13 wrote:

Stephanie wrote:Looks like last Sunday all over again - but for two days.

I wish we could send this out west...

No way, we are having a great summer! Although, the next 2-3 days will be atleast in the low-mid 90s, with some places even popping the 100 degree mark for the first time in year. It would help if we got some cooler air come to think of it, but not the rain.

Actually, I meant the rain - that's what they could use right now. I agree, the weather overall has been perfect!

Stormchaser16 wrote:You know whats funny Colin......... how you posted over at wwbb complaining about how much rain there was going to be.....

Saying "this is NOT good, where did this come from"
Come on Colin, you also called it a stratiform heavy rain event....
Either way, it looks like a good shot of rain for the area tonight into early...... FFW is a good idea IMO

LOL. Some things never change.

LOL but seriously king did you see his post over at wwbb..... the difference in tone between this post and his over there is comical lol

Yeah i seen it. LOL. I really wish people wouldnt do that either.

I felt different at the time - notice the TIME DIFFERENCE between the topic times.

The tone of my post is satirical and sarcastic, not warranted of an "idiot" comment......... given a few hours, you ALWAYS change your mind about this stuff, so your point about the time difference is what?

BTW..... its REDEVELOPING over Pa.... maybe its TIME you changed your forecast again?

Massive flooding to occur over PA and NJ.

Colin wrote:I felt different at the time - notice the TIME DIFFERENCE between the topic times. Idiots.

Listen here Colin you been doing this for as long as you have been posting on both sites and thankfully i am not the only one catching this. BTW dont ever call me a idiot again Colin.

Now i suggest if your not gonna post the same thing at both sites then dont post at all. Kinda misleads people and that i for one dont wanna see here.

Yes, ur not the only one noticing it KOW

Colin wrote:Massive flooding to occur over PA and NJ.

*Checks watch* Yup right on schedule