STORM2K

Could this be a sign of things to come? The first "COLD FRONT" of the season is projected to hit next week This has been, WITHOUT a doubt, the COOLEST summers I've ever seen in my 30 years of watching the weather! Once this cold front passes thru Az and Rocky Mountains, y'all that live in the Plains and Mid West need to keep a CLOSE eye on this, talk about SEVERE WEATHER!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED AUG 18 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY...A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND SPREADING TOWARD THE EAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION...AND GET PUSHED EASTWARD AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN
DRIER AIR. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ANY
APPRECIABLE MONSOON MOISTURE THIS WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHC'S OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS...
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN INTO TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT AND WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOS TO WORK ON...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AS WELL IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS IS SHOWING AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY.
IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. IF THIS SYSTEM DIGS TO FAR TO THE
EAST THEN COOL...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
THIS SYSTEM DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THEN A MORE MOIST
WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD FOR NEXT WEEK.



Dennis

Looking at that GFS model that they were most likely talking about in their discussion. It looks like this front gets organized by next Tuesday, firing off 4 seperate areas of storms, one over TX/OK, another over IA/NE, and the last two over the Dakotas. It looks like these form 3 seperate mesoscales, these located over TX, IA/MN, MN/SD/ND. These storms fire once again on Wed, not quite as strong, but still most likely being isolated severe over parts of MN/IA/WI/MO.

So this cold front very would could be a severe weather outbreak in the making. Just have to wait and see!!

Do you think this front has a chance of pushing through the Houston area? We have had two so far this year and would love to see another one before October.

Take a LOOKY here! I mean, "LOW IN THE 30's!"
I'm at 7000' SO.....could this be the EARLIEST frost EVER recorded?


SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 38 TO 48 ABOVE 7000 FEET...44 TO 53 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 69 TO 79 ABOVE 7000 FEET...77 TO 84 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 39 TO 49 ABOVE 7000 FEET...45 TO 55 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 75 ABOVE 7000 FEET...73 TO 83 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 40 TO 50 ABOVE 7000 FEET...47 TO 55 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 64 TO 74 ABOVE 7000 FEET...72 TO 82 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 38 TO 48 ABOVE 7000 FEET...46 TO 53 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 75 ABOVE 7000 FEET...73 TO 83 BELOW 7000 FEET. =

Canebo, it will be fairly close to your area, I know the GFS model from 12z had some storms with this disturbance going through the northern half of texas. Later on tonight, when I see the new GFS I will post again for ya with the new findings.

Thanks Spotter.

I guess I need to pack my thermals for my trip to Denver next week huh? I'm visiting my Dad from Wed - Saturday. We're going to Red Rocks to see a concert Thursday night that is all 60's music. It's going to be awesome!!!

They had some major flooding in Denver yesterday as well from storms. Over 3 inches of rain! IN DENVER????

WELL Stephanie, I can't find the story online just yet HOWEVER......on FOX 10 News about 1/2 hour ago, the anchorman said that just before Labor Day, he LOVES reporting on the first snow of the season, well GUESS WHAT? It "SNOWED" on Pikes Peak in Colorado YESTERDAY Yeah.....Pikes Peak is at an elevation of 14,110' BUT.....non the less, it snowed 2"

Dennis

Last summer it snowed when i was in WY on JUNE 24! We woke up with 6 inches or so...it was nuts...heres the pikes peak story, snowman

http://9news.com/acm_news.aspx?OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=79ee2566-0abe-421a-012d-a1e8c8ac88a8&TEMPLATEID=0c76dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-c589c01ca7bf

Canebo, sorry about being late. It looks like several waves will be coming through the plains next week. First of several being on Sunday, then others on Tuesday, Wednesday, and the strongest one looks to be coming through on Friday as of the latest GFS from last night. Most are still a long way out, but it does show an active pattern setting up for next week. For Sunday the SPC does have a slight risk out for UP of MI, WI, MN, IA.

azsnowman wrote:WELL Stephanie, I can't find the story online just yet HOWEVER......on FOX 10 News about 1/2 hour ago, the anchorman said that just before Labor Day, he LOVES reporting on the first snow of the season, well GUESS WHAT? It "SNOWED" on Pikes Peak in Colorado YESTERDAY Yeah.....Pikes Peak is at an elevation of 14,110' BUT.....non the less, it snowed 2"

Dennis

I LOVE PIKE!!! He was my first 14'er and when my father brought me up there in September, there was "thunder snow" on the summit.

I hope I'll see some snow caps on the Front Range.

Thanks for the info Spotter. I will keep my fingers crossed.

WELL...the cold front has kinda fizzled a tad BUT...it's still below normal and we're FINALLY getting some MORE decent showers, like now....it's POURING, I'll post the totals when I can get outside and not get drowned "LOL!"

Dennis