STORM2K

Earlier outlooks had slight risk to the north but they are down into central portions of IL/IN now. Looks like a weak wave has developed on the front in SE IA and there is a nice sharp delineation between very warm and humid air to the south of the front/outflow boundary, with cooler/drier air to the north. The boundary extends from Bloomington, IN to ILX to Burlington, IA. Winds have actually backed around to the E and SE ahead of the low, so low-level helicities are up to 350. With ample CAPE, vertical shear on the order of 40-50 kt and fairly low LCL's (although not perfect), could be some tornadoes, especially along the pseduo-warm front. Excellent turning with height up to 500 mb to allow for supercell development, and low wet-bulbs could mean large hail. Actually, I see there are already several golfball size hail reports from central IL, and a few tornado warnings in progress. Could possibly organize into MCS after dark, as cold pool builds behind squall line in IA.

Here are the current watches...

Awesome radar image from ILX weather service office showing supercell with hook echo west of Peoria. Appears to be riding the differential heating boundary/front.