STORM2K

Looking at the sate. image this morning and the IR it appears there's one HECKUVA low pressure poised to BLAST through Az. tonight into Weds evening, this could spell a MAJOR severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Mid West when it leaves the Rockies


MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEPEST MOISTURE
DUE TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES...AND SOME DYNAMICS. WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH
POPS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH INTERACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Indeed, the SPC has portions of the central plains in the slight risk category in all 3 of their outlooks. Nothing so far looks to point towards a major outbreak, but several things can change by the time the next day comes. As for today it looks like the best area is going to be parts of the Dakotas, especially the Eastern half of SD.

Our local ocm's are already talking about that low coming through our area in a few days and causing some possible severe. It is definitely a strong one. With the feed we already have set up from the South we could see some heavy rains here in TX. Just what we need after this weekend when we had 2" at the house and more storms on the way in for the lunch time.

Hey vbhoutex, can you send some of that rain down my way here in League city. I got 2/10" 's yesterday, none Saturday, and only clouds today.

I'm going to see what kind of grass they grow in their yards in Arizona and trade in my St. Augistine for it. I shouldn't complain though, this is the 1st measurable rainfall since the June deluge we had. When were they talking about the low coming through here? I saw ch. 11 at noon and they just had the standard 20 and 30%'s up for the rest of the week. I'll cross my fingers.

I heard it was 20F in Embarass, MN this morning..That is cold for the flatlands..

YEPPERS......it's a COMIN'! It's been WINDIER than ALL GET OUT today, gusts here at the house of 35-38 MPH! Check out the very last paragraph.....EARLY fall like conditions???


ON TUESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MOISTURE
REMAINS BUT MID-LEVEL WARMING ALSO DEVELOPS. THINK ISOLATED
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A NICE DAY. DRYING A STABILIZATION STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOOKS TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

IN THE EXTENDED...LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND STABLE WESTERLIES REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATE FOR SUNNY...FALL-LIKE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.