STORM2K

Well guys we got thru the severe weather from the looks of it. So are some of you ready for some big time spring snows! :o

Well the latest model runs especially the ETA is taking the next system a bit farther south!
Which now its looking like a good bet that areas from Southern Iowa and northern Mo East thru the Ohio Valley into the Apps are gonna see a Big time snowstorm.
It looks like the heavier snow may get as far north as the Ill and Wi boarder and east too just south of Detroit Mich. And the southern end should be the i70 corridor in Indiana and Ohio. I mostly expect a Rn/Sn mix along i70 ending as snow and rain to the south. This could change if the storm tracks even farther south.
Right now i am looking good for a decent snowstorm out of this which i am excited about!

As far as the east coast goes its looking like a very strong cad setting up which could give places from DC north some wintry precip. Right now it looks like most of the wintery type precip should stay N and W of the cities! Now from NY City north it is looking very wintry with a good possibility of a big snowstorm!

Right now im not going into any details yet because its still too early to make a detailed call. I will say though that for people in Iowa from i80 south could be looking at 6+ inches of snow with a possibility of up to a foot!
Either way stay tuned for further updates because this is a changing situation and nothing is yet set in stone!

Snow down to DC. Amazing indeed for early next week. It can snow this time of year on the major cities. But after 10-15 days, it gets pretty late or any real snow for DC through NYC. I just hope it doesn't snow on July 4th for instance.

Jim

Noooooooooooooooooooooo!

Well the trend continues with winter storm watches now posted in the areas i mentioned above in the Midwest into Indiana and i expect them to continue to have watches posted farther east into Ohio and western Pa when the newer nws forecast comes out later today in Cleveland and Pittsburgh and probably a few for the southern Most counties in Mich from the Detroit nws. And it wouldnt suprise me even too se a few come out of Indianapolis and Wilmington nws Offices as well for areas along and just north of i70 in Indiana and Ohio but my gut tells me these offices will wait untill later tonight or even tommorow morning.

Expect to see them start flying tommorow for the apps east to possibly just west of the big cities in the i95 corridor from DC north.

You can all thank the storm that passed thru last night which has brought the cold front farther to the south then called for as well as the snow cover farther north into the great lakes and the ne for the more southern track. Temps here where i am at are already about 7 degrees colder then forecasted and i expect that trend to continue farther east.
I will have more updates later today as more info comes in and i may even have a map out later and hopefully will be able to get it on here.
This is a changing situation so check back in for further updates because some of this can and may change.

Here is the model discussion from hpc! Looks to me like the low will go thru Ky and off the Va/Nc Coast close to Va Beach! And now the rn/sn line is on the move to the south again! Looking like DC will be getting into the action with the snow!

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1244 PM EST SAT APR 05 2003

VALID APR 05/1200 UTC THRU APR 08/0000 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

THE ETA MODEL IS INITIALIZED ABOUT 20-40 KNOTS TOO LOW WITH THE
250 MB JET ACROSS OH...IN AND IL. GFS SHOWING SAME PROBLEM
ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS SLIGHTLY LESS AT 15-35 KNOTS.

MODEL TRENDS...

ETA...
HOLDING MORE ENERGY FURTHER WEST THAN OLDER RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY AT 60 HRS.

SLIGHTLY SHARPER WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH DEPARTING THE
NORTHEAST AT 54-60 HRS.

SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH WEST OF
CANADA.

GFS...
SAME TREND AS ETA WITH SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL US AT 60 HRS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

CNTL/EAST...

THE ETA IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE EJECTING
500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVG ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AT 60 HRS. THE
ETA ALSO HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS SE CANADA THAN
DOES THE OTHER MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A MORE PHASED TROUGH
WHICH SUPPORTS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AT 60 HRS AND BEYOND. ALSO AT 60 HRS...THE
CANADIAN IS WEAKER THAN BOTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND HAS MORE OF A PHASED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US AT 60 HRS THAN DO THE ETA OR GFS.

THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH 24 HRS. BY 42 HRS...THE GFS IS FASTER AND
STRONGER WITH THE LOW ACROSS TN. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH 54 HRS. THE ETA IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW OVER
KY AT 54 HRS. THE ETA ALSO SHOWS MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMMING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF ORF. BY 60 HRS...THE ETA CONTINUES WITH A
STRONGER PARENT LOW DYING OVER ERN KY AND A STRONGER LOW
DEPARTING THE MID-ATLANTIC...ALONG WITH STRONGER DAMMING.
THE ETA SOLUTION WOULD BE COLDER FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
COLDER AIR WITH A RAIN/SNOW LINE FURTHER NORTH. THE CANADIAN
IS VERY DIFFERENT WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF ORF AT 60
HRS AND A MUCH STRONGER FURTHER NORTHWEST PARENT LOW
ACROSS IN.

THE ETA/GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED OVER THE CNTL US AT 60 HRS
WITH REGARDS TO THE NON-PHASED 500 MB TROUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EITHER A GFS OR ETA SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AT 60 HRS. THE ETA SHOULD BE HANDLING THE DAMMING
BETTER WITH COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND A MORE SOUTHERN
RAIN/SNOW LINE.

WEST...

OFF THE CANADIAN COAST...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE ETA HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE PREFERRED.

CARR

MODEL BIASES AVAILABLE AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml

Here is my watch:

...BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DUBUQUE IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-SOME CITIES INCLUDED ARE...STERLING...ROCK ISLAND...PRINCETON...MOUNT CARROLL...MOLINE...KEWANEE...GALENA...FREEPORT...ALEDO...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...VINTON...TIPTON...SIGOURNEY...MUSCATINE...MARENGO...MAQUOKETA...MANCHESTER...IOWA CITY...INDEPENDENCE...DUBUQUE...DAVENPORT...CLINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...BETTENDORF...ANAMOSA...MONMOUTH AND WASHINGTON MILLS
...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL AND WEATHER.COM FOR UPDATES....

Mount Holly Discussion earlier mentioned the potential that the snowfall could be of a heavy wet variety which with some trees already in bloom could result in power loss and tree damage as well as potential roof collapses, especially if the heavy QPF's being spit out by the ETA pans out (however, I would ½ the QPF the ETA for a forecast in general)

Yea Stormsfury thats the funny thing about the ETA on the east coast its usually higher and on the other side of the apps like where i am at its under. . It could be very accurate if it would add more precip west and less east with its forecast. It is looking bad for some with a heavy wet snow. And i may be one as well that has that problem unless that high builds in farther south and keeps the snow here a little drier. Oh well time will tell. Temps here are running about 10 degrees colder then was forecasted which could help could help with the snow as well. Sitting at 31.

Either way its gonna be intresting from now untill possibly late this up comming week with all the severe weather and winter weather.

I will have a update in a little bit.

Definitely ... K.O.W. ... I won't be able to do much forecasting tonight and tomorrow ... I have a date tonight and tomorrow I have to go to North Carolina tomorrow ...

Amazing how winter won't let go its grasp ... hopefully for those areas expecting heavy wet snow, the CAD is stronger than progged (a likely scenario since CAD events are usually underprogged by models) and the layers at 900mb~950mb levels are colder than progged, hence a drier snow ...

Well so far everything is panning out like i have said so far. The the issue at hand right now is precip type in some areas. Some places in the Ohio Valley and in the i95 corridor from n and west of DC up to just south of Ny City could be seeing some icing take place. Philly metro area looks good for a 2-4 inch snowfall with alot of sleet and some Freezing rain as well and areas to the North & west of Dc and Baltimore will see some mixed precip.
Now as for areas in the Ohio Valley along the i70 corridor from Indiana to Ohio will see the mixed precip as well. More rain to the south(Inch or less) and more frozen precip to the north of i70(1-4).
Areas farther north in Ohio And Indiana will see the heavier snows with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in time to time possibly (4-8) And places about 60 or so miles north of i70 will be all snow with the highest amounts possibly up to a foot in some areas in Northern Oh and Northern Indiana south of i80 (6-12). Areas farther north into Mich will see ranges of 5-9 in the southern most counties and around 3-6 around Detroit and less farther north.
Now as for areas in and around Ny city up to just south of boston will see a big dumping of snow ass well with some areas close to Ny City itself getting up to a foot of snow.

Right now the Chicago area is looking at a 4-8 inch snow event.

I will have another update later to make any changes that may be needed.

I'm just wondering where it's at! Nothing here yet!

It will be there shortly. Just give it time. You will be getting yours! Give it at most another 1/2 hour or less!

Good! And I don't even want the stuff! I just like to be able to take new interesting pictures!

Holy cow! Open mouth, insert foot! Thundersnow headed right for me!!!! Yippee!!!

I thought I was the only (un)lucky one to see all of this snow fall this spring, and I am overjoyed at the fact that more locations will see the white stuff well into April. Who would've thunk it, New York, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit all with a snow storm in April. I love it!

BTW, spring is on it's way here. 50's and 60's predicted by the end of next week. I'm jumping for joy now!

Map for snow amounts!

I'll say, this is 6 to 7 days after the the system that buried southern New England under two feet of snow on March 31st-April 1st, 1997... that I have mentioned a few times on other threads.