EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2003 7:46 am
000
FXUS62 KMLB 080802
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2003
...CHANGEABLE WX ON TAP NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
LATE-TO-DEVELOP CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN
INTERIOR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY HELP SPAWN SOME EARLY ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CWA
TODAY...BUT BELIEVE RAIN CHANCE FROM SUCH WILL BE SMALL. GREATER
CONCERN IS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS AIDED
BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE AND APPROACH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. MERGER OF BOUNDARIES SHOULD OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AND EARLIER THAN MONDAY AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER ACTIVITY OFF THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND INSTABILITY
AGAIN BECOMES MODERATE...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. ONE
LAST WARM DAY IN STORE AS LARGE SCALE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY... BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY AS GREATER CLOUD COVER PREVAILS.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM MESOSCALE-DRIVEN TO SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL CUTOFF EVOLVES AND DROPS INTO THE SE STATES.
AVN AND ETA QUITE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYSTEM EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO TIMING/MOVEMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPWARD MOTION...AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PENINSULA FROM THE
PANHANDLE/EASTERN GULF VERY LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER GA/SC. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL NORTH/CENTRAL COUNTIES AS BAND SINKS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AS APPROACH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY. EXTENT OF SEVERE WX
THREAT TIED TO EVENTUAL LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW FORMATION
AND THUS INTENSITY OF LOW LEVEL JET. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED LOW INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. EXPECT GENERAL 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH RAIN BAND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
RAINBAND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEYOND THE EVENING.
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW SUGGESTS DRY SLOT WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LONG FETCH OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW EXTENSIVE SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS TO WORK ACROSS PORTION
OF CWA FROM THE GULF WELL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TOWARDS THE LOWER 70S...SOME 15-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAY MAXS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CLEAR/DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE COOL WX WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTENSE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST AND INFLUENCE
UPON LOCAL AREA SLOWLY RELAXES. BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE
RESULTING IN ONSET OF MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
MODIFICATION.
MARINE...WIND FORECAST STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE EXACT LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW. WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MESO-ETA AND INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN RE-STRENGTHENING OF
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCES A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FIRE WX...DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY WX BEHIND FRONT THU/FRI MAY
EVENTUALLY PROMPT INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
DAB ET 084/067 079/059 070 65458
MCO ET 086/068 080/061 071 65458
MLB ET 084/069 082/063 072 65348
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE...WIMMER
FXUS62 KMLB 080802
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2003
...CHANGEABLE WX ON TAP NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
LATE-TO-DEVELOP CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN
INTERIOR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY HELP SPAWN SOME EARLY ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CWA
TODAY...BUT BELIEVE RAIN CHANCE FROM SUCH WILL BE SMALL. GREATER
CONCERN IS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS AIDED
BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE AND APPROACH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. MERGER OF BOUNDARIES SHOULD OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AND EARLIER THAN MONDAY AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER ACTIVITY OFF THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND INSTABILITY
AGAIN BECOMES MODERATE...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. ONE
LAST WARM DAY IN STORE AS LARGE SCALE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY... BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY AS GREATER CLOUD COVER PREVAILS.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM MESOSCALE-DRIVEN TO SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL CUTOFF EVOLVES AND DROPS INTO THE SE STATES.
AVN AND ETA QUITE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYSTEM EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO TIMING/MOVEMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPWARD MOTION...AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PENINSULA FROM THE
PANHANDLE/EASTERN GULF VERY LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER GA/SC. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL NORTH/CENTRAL COUNTIES AS BAND SINKS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AS APPROACH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY. EXTENT OF SEVERE WX
THREAT TIED TO EVENTUAL LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW FORMATION
AND THUS INTENSITY OF LOW LEVEL JET. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED LOW INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. EXPECT GENERAL 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH RAIN BAND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
RAINBAND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEYOND THE EVENING.
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW SUGGESTS DRY SLOT WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LONG FETCH OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW EXTENSIVE SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS TO WORK ACROSS PORTION
OF CWA FROM THE GULF WELL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TOWARDS THE LOWER 70S...SOME 15-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAY MAXS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CLEAR/DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE COOL WX WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTENSE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST AND INFLUENCE
UPON LOCAL AREA SLOWLY RELAXES. BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE
RESULTING IN ONSET OF MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
MODIFICATION.
MARINE...WIND FORECAST STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE EXACT LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW. WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MESO-ETA AND INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN RE-STRENGTHENING OF
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCES A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FIRE WX...DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY WX BEHIND FRONT THU/FRI MAY
EVENTUALLY PROMPT INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
DAB ET 084/067 079/059 070 65458
MCO ET 086/068 080/061 071 65458
MLB ET 084/069 082/063 072 65348
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE...WIMMER