Severe T-storms in Southern California on Monday?
Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2003 2:57 pm
...SRN CA...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY STRONG IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD SRN CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE..AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. LARGE SCALE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...CHANNELED/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SRH AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT REGARD AIRMASS/INSTABILITY QUALITY AND TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSE. AS THESE INGREDIENTS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA.
:o :o :o :o :o
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY STRONG IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD SRN CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE..AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. LARGE SCALE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...CHANNELED/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SRH AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT REGARD AIRMASS/INSTABILITY QUALITY AND TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSE. AS THESE INGREDIENTS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA.
:o :o :o :o :o