STORM2K

which is ONLY a Cat 4 has to be watched for possible threats to Baja and for rains in the SW US. I posted this here since a non ATL Tropical Thread wouldn't last longer than 6.2 nanoseconds before scrolling off the Tropical Board.

Steve

How far into the SW is the rain expected to impact??

and in fact, very few of the models are even showing the storm. At the moment, it looks as though it will all slide off to the east and miss the SW US unfortunately since the trough is coming through too soon.

Steve

Nice rains after all from Javier this afternoon and evening. Air feels tropical tonight....and that's a good thing!!! Could get an inch or so of rain here in the valley of the sun before Monday rolls around!

We're getting reports of severe street flooding in Show Low, 13 miles to my NW......I'm receiving approx 1/2" per hour right now with HEAVIER rain off to my SW, moving to the NE!

Dennis

get a strong orographic effect from the initial plume. The real fun comes Sunday and Monday when the trough picks up the LLCC remnants. Last time that happened like that (1995) there was a severe weather outbreak in AZ that would have been more at home in Oklahoma in Spring. Hail up to softball size was reported with baseball hail verified. Because the storms were at night the tornado reports were never confirmed. Fort Huachuca had tennis ball hail and 84 mph winds.

Steve

Thats why ill be chasing this event tomorrow, and I will report in what is happening via wireless.

Tornado Chaser

on chase alert to catch what ever might head my way from Javier.

Steve

WELL Steve, here it COMES!

Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:28 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After a quite night last night, it's making a HUGE comeback this morning near hurricane force winds with some of these supercells!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
/X.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0007.040919T1047Z-040919T1115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 AM MST SUN SEP 19 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 415 AM MST

* AT 340 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BAGDAD AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BAGDAD AT 355 AM MST

LAT...LON 3456 11335 3445 11317 3485 11279 3498 11302

for me-at least not today as we are getting the actual dissipating LLCC which is headed for Nogales and a nice long duration glorious rain. It has been breezy but peak wind gusts haven't exceeded 30mph here or 35 mph in Nogales.

Steve

Nothing happening yet. I will continue to wait in Phoenux, AZ. Might be the debris clouds, hinding surface heating. I will still wait here.

Tornado Chaser

Looks like the rainfall has shifted east of here. .63" over the two day period with more in the mountains. Nice rains...spread over about 18 hours.

Yes indeed, a WONDERFUL day! I made a mistake in another thread, I said I had received 2.43" since last night when in fact, I only received 1.43", like I said, it was EARLY when I checked it "LOL!" STILL, 1.43" is ALMOST as much as we received during the ENTIRE so called monsoon season this past year! I'm tellin' ya.......this COOL air feels WONDERFUL!


Dennis